After a weird NBA season that featured the coronavirus, a shortened schedule, partially-filled arenas, the first ever play-in tournament, and the New York Knicks winning basketball games, the playoffs have finally arrived. And not a moment too soon.
Before we get into all of the first round matchups, let’s make a a quick acknowledgement of the brand new play-in tournament, a system designed to disincentivize tanking, which, coincidentally, likely brought in some extra revenue for Adam Silver after two straight shortened seasons. I liked it. It is very conceivable that teams like the Wizards or Pacers, without the allure of that 10th seed dangling in front of them, would have given up and attempted to tank a few weeks after the trade deadline. Instead, they pushed themselves to perform and gave themselves a chance. The NBA had narratives to discuss throughout the final days and weeks of the regular season, all revolving around those final play-in spots, and had exciting and important games going on that would typically be irrelevant and boring in past seasons. As for the actual tournament itself, we only really had two good games: the two Warriors games. But those were enough to validate the entire tournament’s existence, especially that final game between Memphis and Golden State which felt like nothing short of a Game 7.
I am also going to acknowledge Stephen Curry, probably because I am disappointed that we will be watching Memphis and Utah play each other rather than watch Curry for another few games. He was nothing short of incredible this year. In his final game, Curry had a lot of terrible turnovers, but he also had 39 points. Credit to Dillon Brooks who played great defense on Curry, but Curry still had 39 points. I have never in my life seen a player being guarded the way he was being guarded against Memphis, being face-guarded and double-teamed at half court, and yet… Curry still put up 39 points. If Draymond Green hadn’t panicked on an open layup from two feet away, the Warriors would be in the playoffs. To anyone on Twitter after that play-in game criticizing Curry and saying that he is not a top 20 player in the NBA (this is a thing people are saying), be reminded that not only is he a top 20 player in the NBA right now, he is without question a top 20 player in NBA history.
Utah Jazz (1) vs Memphis Grizzlies (8)
Season Series: Utah Jazz 3-0
It’s hard to imagine that many people are picking the Grizzlies to win this series. Kudos to them for playing into that eighth seed, and kudos to Ja Morant and Dillon Brooks for pulling out that Warriors game. But if you watched them play, they just aren’t that great of a team, and certainly not a team that is gonna go anywhere past this first round. Still, they are extremely young and inexperienced, and it will be interesting to see how those young players do. It is very possible that this Memphis team will retain its core players and continue to improve together much in the Utah Jazz mold, and eventually rise up in the rankings as the young players improve. The Jazz are a somewhat uninspiring one seed, but they are good enough to dispatch of the Grizzlies without much difficulty.
Phoenix Suns (2) vs Los Angeles Lakers (7)
Season Series: Phoenix Suns 2-1
Poor Phoenix. They had so many great stories coming into and throughout this season, including but not limited to: the 8-0 record in the bubble; a Devin Booker, Mikal Bridges and Cameron Johnson leap; a probable Monty Williams Coach of the Year; a shocking regular season that nearly landed them the top seed in the west; an even more shocking Cameron Payne season as a rotation player; and, of course, another year of Chris Paul being great and lifting up a franchise.
All this just to play the greatest seventh seed of all time. And not only that, but probably the most horrific matchup for the Suns in the league. I’m sure that Chris Paul was more nervous than Warriors fans watching that LeBron shot land in the middle-of-three rims and realize that they would have to play the Lakers in the first round.
This is not writing off Phoenix by any means, because they are a great team and have had a great season. If Devin Booker has a great series, Chris Paul is able to do Chris Paul things, and most importantly, Deandre Ayton is aggressive and effective on both ends, then anything can happen. But the unfortunate reality is that the size of the Lakers is a disaster for the Suns, because Ayton isn’t even close to enough to stopping Anthony Davis. On top of this, the Lakers have some great defenders, and while Booker is good enough to score on anyone, LA has players to throw at him and players like Caruso to contain Chris Paul. Oh yeah, and the Lakers still have LeBron James, assuming he can see the rim by that point. The Suns won the season series, but just remember that LeBron and AD were hurt. This matchup really sucks for Phoenix, and I feel bad for Chris Paul if they lose in the first round, because it won’t be his fault.
Denver Nuggets (3) vs Portland Trailblazers (6)
Season Series: Denver Nuggets 2-1
This will be a good series. They have had some awesome matchups in the previous few years in the playoffs, and this series to me is fairly even. The initial instinct is to pick Portland, just because of the injury to Jamal Murray and thinking back to how incredible he was for Denver in the bubble when they made their WCF run. Damian Lillard, as everyone knows by now, has the potential to be great in big moments and has the capacity to light up a series and carry his team, like he did against OKC in 2019. But, the Blazers are also terrible on defense and the Nuggets still have Nikola Jokic. I understand that he may not be the most exciting choice, but there is no shame in acknowledging that he has been the MVP this year, and understanding that he has had a historic year and played in every single game, something almost nobody else can say this season. When Murray went down, I assumed the Nuggets would dive off a cliff and Jokic would lose hold of the MVP. That didn’t happen. In fact, they actually got better in terms of record, and are entering the playoffs with some confidence. Now, it would be dumb to say that the Nuggets are better off without Jamal Murray, and they actually are much worse off because the two-man game with Murray and Jokic was so vital to the team’s potential success in the playoffs, but this being said, Jokic still wreaks havoc with his playmaking and scoring, and this series will come down to the star of each team and which one outshines the other.
Los Angeles Clippers (4) vs Dallas Mavericks (5)
Season Series: Dallas Mavericks 2-1
Ah, the Clippers. So many people were on the Clippers train last year, and as soon as they lost a 3-1 lead in the second round, so many people jumped off the train that the team is actually underrated now. This isn’t to say it’s not reasonable to doubt this team. The Clippers tanked the last few games of the season to squirm into the opposite side of the bracket as the Lakers, which doesn’t bode well for their mental fortitude or confidence. Typically, whether you believe in karma or not, it’s hard to imagine a team being rewarded with a trip to the finals for ducking a team so egregiously. We all know the “Playoff P” stuff, and we know that they have struggled with injuries. So with all this being said, could you make the case to me that Luka Doncic, in a step in his journey towards becoming an NBA great, puts together four incredible games and wills Dallas to an improbable first round victory? Yes. This is definitely in play. Is it likely to happen? Probably not. The Clippers simply have more talent on their team, and while it’s easy to forget that Kawhi Leonard is still there, maybe we shouldn’t. The Mavericks basically only have Doncic and Porzingis, and even Porzingis doesn't provide much at times. Don’t rule out a choke, but the Clippers should be able to win this series. And assuming they do, there is still an easy pathway for them to make the Western Conference Finals for the first time, despite everyone being off the train.
Philadelphia 76ers (1) vs Washington Wizards (8)
Season Series: Philadelphia 76ers 3-0
The Wizards started off the season with one of the league’s worst records, and ended the season with a stretch containing one of the league’s best records. All in all, they ended up in the exact spot that a Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook-led team should have been in, and that’s about as far as this team will go. The organization and especially those two players really deserve some credit for the fight that they put up in the latter half of the season to make the play-in tournament and lock in that playoff spot, and everyone was once again reminded of how special of a player Westbrook can be. However, it’s really hard to imagine him being both productive and efficient enough in the playoffs and in this first round to put up much of a fight against the conference’s top team. Joel Embiid is a dominant force and a tough matchup for Washington. Beal and Westbrook are good enough to explode and maybe take a game or two, but this should be a foregone conclusion.
Brooklyn Nets (2) vs Boston Celtics (7)
Season Series: Brooklyn Nets 4-0
Actually, this series is a also foregone conclusion. The Celtics were already the most disappointing team in the NBA, and then they lost their second best player in Jalen Brown. All year long, this team has been going down by double digits and underperforming. The Celtics were able to beat the Wizards in the play-in game behind Tatum’s 50 points, which was the only pathway to a victory one might have thought of before the game happened. Whether or not Tatum can score 50 points a game, Kemba Walker can be consistent, and Marcus Smart can refrain from shooting bad 3-pointers probably doesn’t matter if the Nets have all, or even most, or even some, of their guys. It might be a beatdown.
If we’re being honest, I think the two biggest plot lines here are these: (1) Whether or not every single player on the Boston Celtics will go give Kyrie a big hug after every single game like they did during the regular season, and (2) how often Marv Albert will confuse Romeo Langford, Aaron Nesmith and Marcus Smart. Oh, and in the Wizards series, watch out for Marv exclaiming “Rui Hachimura with the bucket!” whenever Chandler Hutchinson scores the ball. (Marv is an incredible commentator and a legend by the way, but he and his toupee have been ready to retire for the past year.)
Milwaukee Bucks (3) vs Miami Heat (6)
Season Series: Milwaukee Bucks 2-1
Everybody is really excited to push the Miami underdog pick here. The Milwaukee Bucks have a similar stench to that of the LA Clippers, and people ignore the Bucks because they are unwilling to pick them to win after previous playoff failures. This matchup in particular has this energy because they are playing Miami, who beat them just last season. Jimmy Butler has played himself into All-NBA form once again and Bam Adebayo can likely play decent defense on Giannis. It is not unreasonable or difficult to talk yourself into the Heat winning this series, which would be pretty disastrous for the Bucks franchise. But, it’s also important to remember that this is not the exact same situation as last year. First of all, Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson were huge for Miami in the bubble playoffs, and those guys have not been good all year long (Herro has picked it up a bit as of late). And second of all, it’s not like Jrue Holiday is a tiny upgrade over Eric Bledsoe. He is a major improvement, and between the improved playmaking, scoring and defense at that position, I think that the Bucks have the edge in this series.
New York Knicks (4) vs Atlanta Hawks (5)
Season Series: New York Knicks 3-0
There’s a lot of different ways to go in discussing these teams and this series, just like there’s a lot of different ways that the series itself can go. As a whole, it’s pretty clear that the Hawks just have significantly more offensive talent between players like Trae Young, Bogdan Bogdanovic and John Collins. The Knicks don’t really have this offensive talent besides Randle, and maybe one could make an argument that that difference will just be too much for the Knicks to handle. However, it’s also worth pointing out that Julius Randle has absolutely dominated the Atlanta Hawks this year, because they just don’t have anybody to guard him. A very conceivable pathway for the Knicks to win is a great series from Randle, good coaching, and just the inexperience from the Atlanta players coming through. For example, does anybody know what we are going to get from Trae Young in a playoff series? Do we actually expect him to be really good? Maybe he’ll prove himself, or maybe he’ll shoot too much and hurt his team a bit. The Knicks have had a pleasantly surprising season, and it’s possible that the way they grind out games will win them four games against a team that does not grind out games that way. If I had to bet on any series going to seven games, it would be this one.
