Each division in Major League Baseball will have its own unique storylines during the 2021 season. However, in the opinion of many, including myself, the National League East will be the most competitive and entertaining division in the sport. Although there are several other divisions where the order of the standings is not clear cut, the NL East has a blurred outcome for different reasons. Divisions such as the NL Central or the AL West are filled with below average to mediocre ballclubs, whereas the National League East has arguably five teams that could potentially make the playoffs due to their absurd amount of talent. The standings of this division have changed almost every season over the past decade. The Braves have been the perennial division champions, coming in first in the division the previous three seasons after not making the playoffs since 2013. The Marlins surprised everyone by coming in second in the division in 2020 and making the playoffs for the first time since 2003. The Phillies have hovered right around .500 record-wise since signing Bryce Harper prior to the 2019 season. The Nationals won their first World Series championship in franchise history in 2019 after clinching the top Wild Card spot in the NL, and have made the playoffs five out of the last nine seasons. And the Mets had back-to-back playoff berths in 2015-2016, including an NL pennant in ‘15, but have not been able to put it all together since. With each team making significant upgrades to their rosters this offseason, it seems as if 2021 could be another coin flip to see who will come out on top.
Although characterized as the quietest team from the National League East this offseason, Miami acquired serviceable bullpen options while adding some pop to their lineup in Adam Duvall. Philadelphia retained two key cogs in their lineup in Didi Gregorious and JT Realmuto, while adding much-needed bullpen assistance in Archie Bradley. Washington reset the veterans surrounding their young core of position players that helped them to the 2019 title, while also bringing back a great clubhouse presence in lifetime National Ryan Zimmerman. Atlanta brought in Charlie Morton and brought back Marcell Ozuna in an effort to get over the NLCS hump and play in the fall classic. And New York made arguably the biggest splash of any team this offseason by acquiring star shortstop Francisco Lindor, while also making several supplemental moves under new owner Steve Cohen. Anyone who is a true baseball fan can see why there can be a case made for all of these teams to win the NL East in 2021. While there is obviously a possibility that one or more of these teams gets struck by disaster for whatever reason, should this not happen there is a good chance all five teams finish with records above .500. Will Francisco Lindor quickly make his presence known in Queens and lead the Mets to their first playoff berth since 2016? Can Freddie Freeman be a finalist in the NL MVP voting for the second year in a row as the Braves look to make it four consecutive years in the playoffs? How does an aging pitching staff blend with a young core of position players in our nation’s capital? Is this the year the Phillies break their playoff drought and Bryce Harper returns to October baseball? Will the Marlins continue to thrive in the underdog role and shock the league again? We’ll find out soon enough. The NL East is undoubtedly the most talented division in all of baseball, and we should be in for a wild ride that could decide who makes the playoffs on the last day of the 2021 season.
First Place- New York Mets
Notable Additions- Francisco Lindor, Carlos Carrasco, James McCann
What a crazy year it has been for fans of the New York Mets. During the 2020 season, their lineup consisted of guys like Robinson Cano, Wilson Ramos, and Yoenis Cespedes, who were all prized acquisitions of the Brodie Van Wagenen regime during his tenure as the general manager in Queens. Now? Cano has been suspended for a second time during his career for the use of PEDs, Ramos is looking for a bounce-back season with the Tigers, and Cespedes has not been seen around MLB since his decision to opt-out quickly after the 2020 season began due to covid-19 reasoning. Former Mets manager Mickey Callaway, also known for his days as pitching coach for the Indians and most recently the Angels, was fired after two seasons in October 2019and has since been the subject of sexual harassment allegations. After Carlos Beltran was set to replace Callaway as skipper of the Mets, he was fired soon after due to his involvement in the Houston Astros cheating scandal. More recently, the Wilpon family agreed to sell the Mets organization to billionaire Steve Cohen. What did Cohen do as his first form of business with the team? Fire general manager Van Wagenen, of course. Although BVW certainly made moves to try and make the team, they unfortunately never worked out. Nevertheless, Cohen is now the owner of the Mets. Zack Scott is officially the new Mets general manager after Jared Porter was fired a month after being hired by Cohen to be the new GM in January due to more issues involving sexual harassment. The Mets obviously did the right thing by firing each of these men. Their unacceptable actions should not be tolerated whatsoever, and they should not be receiving job offers from anyone around baseball anytime soon. And first-year manager Luis Rojas was retained by Cohen and Scott after having a great rapport with players in his first season managing in New York. Although it seemed as if the dust would never settle for fans of the Mets, a new chapter has finally begun.
The shortened 2020 season was not what New York fans had hoped for in terms of team results. The Mets finished with an abysmal record of 26-34, which was tied with the Nats for last in the NL East and third-worst in the NL as a whole. However, several players cemented themselves as cornerstones of the organization which in turn led to substantial moves being made this past offseason. Over the past two seasons, players such as Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo, Dom Smith, and JD Davis have put up particularly good numbers. Alonso, nicknamed the “Polar Bear”, has hit 69 total home runs with a .909 OPS, and was an all-star in 2019, as well as the NL ROY award winner. McNeil, also a 2019 all-star, has proven to be a versatile defender and has hit 27 HR with a .315 BA and an .876 OPS. Nimmo has been an on-base machine when healthy, sporting a .390 OBP. Dom Smith has hit 21 HR, driven in 67 RBI, and hit .299, albeit with slight defensive issues in left field. And Davis, with defensive issues of his own at third base, has shown his offensive prowess, hitting 28 HR, and driving in 76 RBI. Although he opted out of 2020 due to covid-19 reasons, Marcus Stroman was all the Mets could have hoped for after acquiring him at the deadline in 2019, as he compiled a 3.77 ERA and a career-high 9.1 K/9 over 11 starts to finish the year. With closer Edwin Diaz bouncing back in 2020, with a 1.75 ERA and 17.5 K/9, the bullpen does not seem to be far off either. If these several players can stay consistent enough in 2021 to go along with mainstays Jacob deGrom and Michael Conforto, the new additions made under Steve Cohen may just be enough to boost the Mets into the postseason this year.
Although their record did not show it, the Mets had a solid ballclub in the shortened campaign. Put that together with a new owner who is not afraid to spend money, and you get the offseason the Mets just had. James McCann was signed to be the everyday catcher after averaging an .843 OPS the previous two seasons with the White Sox, while also receiving an all-star nod in 2019. Reliever Trevor May was signed to help Edwin Diaz at the back of the pen, after averaging a 2.50 ERA and a 12.9 K/9 over the past three seasons in Minnesota. Taijuan Walker was added to the pitching rotation after compiling a 2.70 ERA and an 8.5 K/9 with Seattle and Toronto last season. And to top it off, Steve Cohen okayed what could end up being an organization changing trade to acquire Francisco Lindor as well as Carlos Carrasco. Obviously, Lindor, known as “Mr. Smile”, should have no problem fitting in while playing in the Big Apple, as his charismatic personality seems as if it was made for New York. When you add 162 game average numbers of 29 HR, a .285 BA, .833 OPS, 21 SB, and a career .981 fielding percentage at shortstop to one of the biggest personalities in the game, you get a once in a lifetime talent. Frankie Lindor should thrive in 2021 as a New York Met, while Mets fans will hope he decides to stay come next offseason. It has been announced that Carrasco will begin the season on the IL, but he is no slouch either. Over 11 seasons, “Cookie” Carrasco has an ERA of 3.77 with a 9.5 K/9 and should be a welcome addition to the rotation once his hamstring strain is healed. With Noah Syndergaard set to return towards the middle of the season after having Tommy John surgery, there are not many flaws on this Mets team. Will Jacob deGrom pitch well enough to receive his third Cy Young award since 2018? Can Pete Alonso repeat his 2019 numbers over a full 2021 season? With free agency looming, how will Francisco Lindor and Michael Conforto perform atop the lineup? Can the team handle full seasons from Dom Smith and JD Davis in the field due to their defensive miscues? How open will Steve Cohen be to making big splashes at the deadline? We shall soon find out. In this star-studded division, anything is possible. However, with this many big changes being made in a market such as New York this offseason, there is a sense of urgency that may be enough to spark the Mets into donning the divisional crown come October.
Francisco Lindor, SS
Michael Conforto, RF
Pete Alonso, 1B
Dom Smith, LF
James McCann, C
Jeff McNeil, 2B
JD Davis, 3B
Brandon Nimmo, CF
Pitcher
Jacob deGrom
Marcus Stroman
Carlos Carrasco
Taijuan Walker
Joey Lucchesi
Second Place- Atlanta Braves
Notable Additions- Marcell Ozuna, Charlie Morton, Drew Smyly
Team MVP- Freddie Freeman
The Atlanta Braves have been a powerhouse in the National League since their first playoff appearance in four years in 2018. It seems as if the club has done everything right since deciding to hire Alex Anthopoulos as their GM prior to the 2018 season. With a young nucleus of talent including Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies, Mike Soroka, and Dansby Swanson to go along with grizzled veterans in Freddie Freeman, Marcell Ozuna, Charlie Morton, and Max Fried (although he has only pitched four seasons), this team is in an obvious win-now mode. Acuna Jr. and Albies have shown their potential since being called up in 2018 and 2017, respectively, and were awarded team-friendly contracts early on, and were huge reasons as to why the Braves made the jump to division winner in the NL East. While Atlanta has made it to the playoffs for three straight seasons, playing in a World Series has still eluded them over that span. With a roster consisting of minimal playoff experience in ‘18 against the Dodgers, it was no wonder the Braves were eliminated in 4 games in the NLDS. Flash forward to 2019, and Atlanta was again knocked out in the NLDS, losing to the Cardinals at home in Game 5 after a horrific first inning in which they allowed St. Louis to score 10 runs. With the gamble signing of Marcell Ozuna prior to the 2020 season paying off big dividends, it looked as if the Braves were on their way to playing in the World Series after having a 3 games to 1 lead over the Dodgers in the NLCS. And against all odds, the dreaded comeback occurred for LA, eliminating Atlanta on their way to a World Series Title. Coincidentally, this Atlanta Braves team seems a lot like the early Dodger teams of this decade, who were always in the playoff mix but did not make it to the WS for several seasons. Braves players, organization members, and fans all realize how talented this team is, and how much potential they have. Heck, every baseball fan understands that this ballclub could win a championship any given year due to their roster construction. A team that comes one win away from playing in a WS certainly should not have many open roster spots, and the Braves fit that mold to a tee. However, with their limited number of additions being beloved clubhouse guys, as well as the ability to perform at a high level, it seems the front office in Atlanta is tired of coming up short.
The losses of outfielders Nick Markakis and Adam Duvall will most definitely leave an impact on this squad. Markakis announced his retirement after an excellent career with Baltimore and Atlanta and was seen as the epitome of a professional ballplayer and a great clubhouse presence. Duvall, on the other hand, was not brought back by Atlanta after a solid bounce-back season, instead of signing with the fellow NL East occupying Miami Marlins. However, the Braves did bring back an integral cog to their 2020 ballclub by re-signing Marcell Ozuna to a four-year contract. In his first year playing with Atlanta, Ozuna led the National League in HR with 18 and RBI with 56. Ozuna also cranked 3 HR during the postseason hitting behind eventual NL MVP Freddie Freeman, proving he was the perfect guy to protect theBraves’s first baseman in the batting order. Ozuna has been a consistent player since coming up in 2013 with Miami, compiling an OPS above .750 six out of his eight seasons, while also garnering all-star nods in 2016 and 2017. The concern surrounding his play will obviously be the inability for manager Brian Snitker to put him at the designated hitter spot as often as he did last year, as there will be no DH in National League ballparks. However, Ozuna has been good defensively before, winning a gold glove with Miami in 2017, and was obviously going through some arm discomfort while playing left field with St. Louis in 2018 and 2019. Although he played poorly in his 21 games in the outfield last year, (playing to a tune of a .955 fielding percentage), the Braves will hope he recaptures his defensive status for the duration of his contract. Atlanta’s other significant signing this offseason was starting pitcher Charlie Morton. Morton, now 37 years old, had contemplated retirement but decided he would give it a go with the Braves. Morton turned his career around with Houston back in 2017, compiling an average ERA of 3.64 and a 10.5 K/9 over the past four seasons with the Astros and the Rays. Morton has also been solid in the postseason throughout his career, compiling an ERA of 3.38 and a 9.8 K/9 over 13 games with Pittsburgh, Houston, and Tampa Bay. With the obvious urgency for Atlanta to produce wins in the playoffs, Charlie Morton seems like the perfect veteran candidate to add to the team.
As good as Charlie Morton has been recently, he will most likely not be the ace of the staff. Max Fried has established himself as a clear number one, with an ERA of 3.14 and an 8.7 K/9 over 41 starts since the start of 2019, while adding a gold glove to his collection after the 2020 season as well. Fried has also been solid in the postseason, with an ERA of 3.90 over 12 games. Mike Soroka will be returning from a torn Achilles around the start of May and has had an ERA of 2.86 over 37 career starts. Known more so as a finesse pitcher, the 2019 all star gives a much different look than the left-handed Fried and flamethrowing Morton on the bump. With the breakouts of guys like Ian Anderson and Kyle Wright in 2020, as well as the under-the-radar signing of Drew Smyly, the Atlanta rotation should be of little concern. Fresh off of his first MVP award, Freddie Freeman should put up the same numbers as usual and be in contention for the award once again. Although he will most likely be wearing a Braves uniform come the 2022 season, Freeman is a free agent after this year and will be trying out for all 29 other ballclubs this season. Will this be the year that Ronald Acuna Jr. joins the 40-40 club? Can Ozzie Albies even out his switch-hitting splits? Will Dansby Swanson continue to build off of successful seasons in 2019 and 2020? How well will Christian Pache live up to his prospect hype? Should we expect the Braves to pull the trigger on a familiar face in Shane Greene for bullpen depth before another team signs him? Can Travis d’Arnaud’s exit velocity and power continue to increase as the starting backstop? We’ll know soon enough. The Atlanta Braves obviously have the potential to win the NL East, and even win the World Series. The New York Mets have a slight edge due to what I believe is a better bullpen, but another implosion by the relievers in Queens could catapult the Braves to a division title. For now, the Braves will hang on to second in the division while vying for a Wild Card spot.
Ronald Acuna Jr., RF
Travis d’Arnaud, C
Freddie Freeman, 1B
Marcell Ozuna, LF
Ozzie Albies, 2B
Dansby Swanson, SS
Austin Riley, 3B
Christian Pache, CF
Pitcher
Max Fried
Mike Soroka
Charlie Morton
Drew Smyly
Ian Anderson
Third Place- Washington Nationals
Notable Additions- Kyle Schwarber, Josh Bell, Jon Lester
A year after winning their first World Series championship in 2019, the Washington Nationals never caught their footing during 2020. However, unlike most teams who develop World Series hangovers during the year following their title, the Nationals were not able to celebrate properly. They did get to have a parade down the streets of Washington DC, however, due to covid-19, they were not able to celebrate their home opener properly with fans in the stands. After how magical that postseason really was for the Nats organization and their entire fanbase, it is unfortunate that this was the case. Although the pandemic has brought more obvious and larger issues, every baseball organization deserves to be able to celebrate the right way, especially for the first championship in franchise history. From former Brewer Trent Grisham’s misplay of Juan Soto’s hit to right field that allowed the game-winning runs to score in the Wild Card Game to Howie Kendrick’s clutch home runs in Game 5 of the NLDS and Game 7 of the World Series, the theatrics for the Washington Nationals never seemed to stop during that electric postseason of 2019. With the icing on the cake being that the Nats beat the extremely disliked Houston Astros, it couldn’t have been a better storyline for the team in our nation’s capital. Flashing forward to the 2020 regular season, the Nationals finished with the same record as the New York Mets at 26-34, and never came close to grabbing the eighth NL playoff spot from the Milwaukee Brewers. Their season started with a false positive covid test for superstar Juan Soto, causing him to miss the beginning of the year, and the rest went downhill from there. World Series hero Stephen Strasburg spent most of the season on the IL. Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin had down years by their standards with ERAs of 3.74 and 4.66, respectively. Newly signed infielder Starlin Castro and veteran infielder Howie Kendrick missed large chunks of the season due to injury. Frankly, aside from Trea Turner and Juan Soto once he returned, many Nats players just didn’t play the same during the shortened campaign. Nevertheless, the 60 game sprint has been completed, and things should be looking up in DC.
It was apparent that one of the biggest missing links for the Washington Nationals in 2020 was veteran leadership. Whether that pertains to clubhouse culture or playing the game right on the field, it was definitely lacking. Ryan Zimmerman decided to opt-out of the 2020 season due to covid reasoning, Brian Dozier was no longer on the team, and Howie Kendrick and Stephen Strasburg both sat out parts of the season due to injuries. It was apparent that general manager Mike Rizzo and company in the front office realized this issue as well, and addressed it mightily this offseason. The Nationals signed Kyle Schwarber, Jon Lester, Brad Hand, and re-signed Mr. National Ryan Zimmerman, while also trading for Josh Bell. Each of these players has significant playing time under their belts and should help bring the team back to standards. Although Schwarber and Lester had down seasons with the Cubs in 2020, Schwarber averaged 31 HR over 162 from 2017-2019, while Lester averaged an ERA of 4.04 over that same span. What may be looked at as highly important for both players is their World Series experience. Lester won two championships in Boston, and both he and Schwarber won the WS with Chicago in 2016. Current Nationals manager Dave Martinez just so happened to be the bench coach for that Cubs team as well, so there is already positive chemistry between them. Closer Brad Hand does not have the same success pitching in the postseason with Cleveland in 2018 and 2020, however, he has a career 3.65 ERA, 9.2 K/9, and 105 saves over 10 regular seasons with Miami, San Diego, and the Tribe, and should receive plenty of save opportunities. First baseman Josh Bell will also be a welcome addition to the lineup in DC, as he was an all-star in 2019 with Pittsburgh and has averaged 25 HR, 91 RBI, and an .814 OPS over 162 while being a switch hitter in the middle of the lineup for the past five seasons. As far as Ryan Zimmerman goes, his pedigree as the best Washington National of all time speaks for itself, and Nats fans have to be ecstatic for his return to the clubhouse.
While these additions will certainly help this Nationals team stay in contention for the duration of a 162 game season, their success will ultimately stem from two core players who were mainstays on the roster for the past several seasons. Shortstop Trea Turner has been with the big league club since the 2015 season and has shown time and time again why he is one of the best players in the sport. Through his five full seasons as a National, Turner has averaged 15 HR, 34 SB, a .306 BA, and an OPS of .864 OPS. He also played his first full season as the primary center fielder in our nation’s capital, so he has proven he can play multiple positions at an elite level. As great as Turner has been for the Nationals, it can be argued that 22-year-old Juan Soto has been even better over his first three seasons in DC. Since being called up to the big leagues in 2018, all Soto has done is hit. He has averaged 23 HR, a .308 BA, and a 1.019 OPS over the past three seasons, and has even drawn comparisons to the great Ted Williams due to his incredible bat to ball skills. If there is any player out there who has the ability to hit .400 over a full season, it is certainly Soto after he led the league in BA in 2020 at .351. Both of these players have also come up big in the postseason. Turner had a big home run in the 2019 Wild Card Game against Milwaukee, and Soto had an OPS of .927 during the entirety of the 2019 postseason. With both players meaning so much to this organization, it will be interesting to see if Mike Rizzo can agree to an extension with either player. There is more of a rush with Trea Turner as he will be a free agent after 2022, however, both should be top priorities. Will Turner and Soto be in a batting title race come September? Can Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin, and Lester bounce back from subpar 2020 seasons and be a top pitching rotation in the sport? How will Josh Bell perform now that he is on a contending team? Will Brad Hand be a difference-maker in the bullpen? Is the acquisition of a third baseman imminent at the trade deadline? We’ll soon find out. Just as the case was with the Atlanta Braves, the Washington Nationals have the potential to surpass the teams I have ahead of them in the standings and win the division or occupy a Wild Card spot. If someone like Kris Bryant or Jose Ramirez happens to be dealt with our nation’s capital in July, the odds of that occurring maybe even higher.
Trea Turner, SS
Juan Soto, RF
Josh Bell, 1B
Kyle Schwarber, LF
Starlin Castro, 3B
Victor Robles, CF
Yan Gomes, C
Josh Harrison, 2B
Pitcher
Max Scherzer
Stephen Strasburg
Patrick Corbin
Jon Lester
Joe Ross
Fourth Place- Philadelphia Phillies
Notable Additions- JT Realmuto, Didi Gregorius, Archie Bradley
Unfortunately for the Philadelphia Phillies, even the expanded playoffs couldn’t get them a postseason berth in the shortened 2020 season. This pattern has become more of the same in the City of Brotherly Love, as the Phils have not made the playoffs since the 2011 season when they were eliminated in the NLDS by the eventual World Champion St. Louis Cardinals in five games. To put this into better perspective, that Phillies team consisted of players such as Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Cole Hamels, just to name a few. Although the Seattle Mariners have the current Major League postseason drought at 19 consecutive seasons without October baseball, the Phillies are at the top of the National League list, having missed the playoffs the past 9 seasons. Although the sting of missing the playoffs this often for the fans residing in the Pacific Northwest can’t be easy, it is frankly a completely different animal when it comes to the city of Philadelphia. Phillies fans can easily be compared to fans from New York, Boston, and Chicago. If their team is not playing up to par year after year, they’re likely to get fed up with the front office and the roster on the field, and fast. The Phillies finished with a record of 28-32 last season, which was good for third in the NL East. In fact, since 2011, the Phils have not had a season where they finished above .500. For fans in a city such as Philadelphia, this is in the category of unacceptable, especially after the signing of a superstar prior to the 2019 season. The good news for Phillies fans is this; the owners have obviously realized that they have tried almost every option possible with the players and staff on the field, and not much changed. What would the next course of action be? For the owners of the Phillies to make a change in the front office, and that is exactly what they did. Dave Dombrowski was hired by the Phils in early December this past offseason to be the new President of Baseball Operations for the organization. For those who are unaware, Dombrowski is a lifetime baseball executive who has won World Championships with both the Marlins and Red Sox in this role. Although much of the team was already constructed by the time Dombrowski was hired, it will be interesting to see what moves are made come deadline time if the Phillies are contending where people predict they will be. Regardless, the Phillies did what was necessary this offseason to show their fanbase they are in a win-now mode by bringing back old faces and new additions in a push for the NL East division crown.
It can be argued that the Phillies’ biggest necessity this offseason was too sure up their bullpen after producing miserable numbers out of the pen in 2020. Although it may have evened out during a 162 game season, the Phillies finished 2020 with a bullpen ERA of 7.11, the worst ERA recorded by a bullpen since 1930. The bullpen was the main reason why the Phils were not playing in October, and another season of an implosion like that would have made fans in Philadelphia pull their hair out. With a mess like that sure to be a work in progress to fix, don’t expect the Phillies to all of a sudden have the best bullpen in baseball in 2021. However, with the additions of relievers such as Archie Bradley and Jose Alvarado, it is doubtful the bullpen ERA will be above 7.00. Bradley has been a solid reliever over his six years in the big leagues, compiling a career ERA of 3.91 and a 9.3 K/9, while also putting up a 2.95 ERA in 2020 while pitching for Arizona and Cincinnati. Although not as good recently, Alvarado has had a serviceable big league career so far, recording a 3.46 ERA and a 10.9 K/9 over four seasons. The Philadelphia bullpen should definitely be in better shape during the 2021 campaign. As far as position players go, the Phillies’ most impactful moves were bringing back both Didi Gregorious and JT Realmuto. In his first season in Philly in 2020, Gregorius slugged 10 HR and had an .827 OPS, which was only two points lower than his career-high set back in 2018. Prior to last season, Didi had been one of the more consistent shortstops in the game while playing for the Yankees. From 2016-2019, he averaged 22 HR, 76 RBI, a .267 BA, and a .774 OPS, while also playing excellent defense. On top of his regular-season play, Gregorius has always had a knack for the big moment in October, with a career .257 BA, 4 HR, and 16 RBI in 28 postseason games with the Yanks. Put all of that together with the fact that Didi was reunited with his former manager Joe Girardi, and will be for the next two seasons in Philadelphia, you get a perfect fit for him to be the starting shortstop. Moving on to what was arguably the most important move made by the Phillies front office this offseason, the fans in Philadelphia should be ecstatic with the fact that JT Realmuto will be the starting catcher with the Phillies for the foreseeable future. After players like Bryce Harper and Archie Bradley praised Realmuto and showed their interest in wanting him back on the team, and manager Joe Girardi constantly speaking on how Realmuto is one of the best catchers in our game, it would have been surprising to see him wearing another uniform in 2021. Aside from his teammates having positive feelings about who JT Realmuto is as a person, the numbers speak for themselves. Since coming up with Miami in 2014, Realmuto has averaged 21 HR, 79 RBI, 10 SB, and a .783 OPS over 162, while receiving all-star nods in both 2018 and 2019. Those types of offensive numbers don’t come around every day for catchers, which is why re-signing Realmuto was of the utmost importance for the Philly front office. With the core of starting pitchers and position players already intact, these acquisitions should give the Phillies their best chance at a record above .500 that they’ve had in a long time.
Although not talked about as much as their lineup due to players like Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, Jean Segura, and Alec Bohm being offensive superstars, the Phillies rotation has been better than advertised recently. Aaron Nola is the anchor of the staff, with a career ERA of 3.47, 9.8 K/9, and an all-star selection to go along with a third-place Cy Young Award finish in 2018. After having an ERA below 4.00 in four out of his five seasons with the Mets, Zack Wheeler compiled an ERA of 2.92 in his first season as a Phillie over eleven starts. Zach Eflin broke out in a big way in 2020, as he finished the season with a 3.97 ERA and 10.7 K/9, which were both career highs. With a top-three atop their pitching rotation consisting of pitchers of that caliber, the Phillies should not have much trouble in terms of their starting staff. As far as the offense goes, Philadelphia has a stacked lineup, much like the entirety of the NL East teams do. Bryce Harper has been as advertised since joining the Phillies, with 48 HR, a .922 OPS, 23 SB, and 147 RBI over his first 215 games while donning the Red Phillie pinstripes. Rhys Hoskins has shown consistent power since getting called up in 2017, averaging 36 HR, 102 RBI, and an .861 OPS over 162 for his career. Jean Segura has played well in the Philadelphia middle infield since being acquired from Seattle in 2018, with a .273 BA and a .325 OBP over the past two seasons, while also spending time at shortstop and second base. And youngster Alec Bohm lit the league on fire as a rookie in 2020, with a .338 BA, 23 RBI, and an .881 OPS over a 44 game span. How will the playing time in center field shakeup with there being no definitive starter there? Can veterans like Andrew McCutchen and Jean Segura continue to perform as they have over their careers? Will the improvements in the bullpen be significant enough? How will Alec Bohm play in 2021 after the league makes adjustments to him? Will JT Realmuto play at the same level in 2021 after signing the largest paying contract ever by a catcher while also coming off a fractured thumb in spring training? We’ll find out as the season unfolds. If the bullpen pitches at an average clip compared to last season and the surrounding lineup and rotation pieces perform to expectations, this may be the season Bryce Harper wins his second career MVP award and breaks the playoff drought in Philadelphia. The Phillies should certainly not be counted out of winning the division. But with the track records of other teams in the NL East each including multiple postseason appearances in the past decade besides the Marlins, a lot will have to go wrong for the clubs I have ranked ahead of Philadelphia in the standings for them to be playing October baseball in 2021.
Andrew McCutchen, LF
Bryce Harper, RF
JT Realmuto, C
Didi Gregorius, SS
Rhys Hoskins, 1B
Alec Bohm, 3B
Jean Segura, SS
Adam Haseley, CF
Pitcher
Aaron Nola
Zack Wheeler
Zach Eflin
Matt Moore
Vince Velasquez
Fifth Place- Miami Marlins
Notable Additions- Adam Duvall, Adam Cimber, Anthony Bass
Although there were several surprise teams in the 2020 postseason, the Miami Marlins may have been the biggest underdog considering the division they were playing in. Nicknamed the “Bottom Feeders” by a Phillies broadcaster during the first series of the season in late July, Miami ended up being everything but. It seemed as if the odds were against the Fish from the start of the shortened season, as they had a covid-19 outbreak spread through the clubhouse after the first series of the season, causing them to miss the following eight games because of MLB protocol. Once cleared to play again, Miami was set to play 27 games in 23 days to end the season, consisting of five doubleheaders. Even with this amount of adversity put against them, along with the rest of the world being in shambles, the Marlins finished the season with a record of 31-29, which was good for second place in the NL East. This was Miami’s first record finish above the .500 mark since 2009 when they were still known as the Florida Marlins, while also being their first playoff berth since winning the 2003 World Series. Both Marlin fans and fans around Major League Baseball must find that relatively hard to believe considering the talent that has gone through their organization since 2003 and most notably since changing their name to the Miami Marlins. As recently as 2017, the Marlins had a lineup that consisted of players such as Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, Dee Strange-Gordon, JT Realmuto, Justin Bour, and Martin Prado, with Ichiro Suzuki sitting on the bench as the fourth outfielder. Although the pitching may not have been where the organization wanted it, a team with that kind of lineup should simply not be sitting on the couch in October. After yet another poor season with those players in their lineup, the Marlins front office decided it was time for a change, partially because of the new ownership group that included Derek Jeter feeling that the organization needed to hit the refresh button and sure up their farm system. Following this decision, the firesale for the Marlins during the 2017 offseason began. Stanton was traded to the Yankees, Yelich was traded to the Brewers, Ozuna was traded to the Cardinals, Strange-Gordon was traded to the Mariners, and Realmuto was traded to the Phillies. While at the time this must have been a difficult situation for Marlins fans to watch unfold, it seems as if the decision to trade those superstar players began to pay off in 2020. With a solid core that included guys like Miguel Rojas, Brian Anderson, Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez, and Sixto Sanchez, the Marlins made subtle moves last offseason and at the trade deadline to push themselves into the six seed in the NL playoff gauntlet. While the majority of the 2020 Marlins team is returning for the 2021 season, the Fish made a few under-the-radar moves that should keep them in contention.
While there were not any moves made by Miami this offseason that got national media attention like others throughout the division, they filled the empty roster spots they needed to. Arguably the biggest move of the Marlins offseason was bringing in outfielder Adam Duvall to play right field. Duvall bounced back in 2020 playing for the division rival Atlanta Braves and was a big reason for their success. In the shortened season with the Braves, Duvall slashed .237 with 16 HR and 33 RBI with an .833 OPS and had two three-homer games. After being relegated to mostly minor league time or bench duties after being traded to Atlanta at the 2018 deadline from the Reds, Duvall played in 57 out of 60 games in 2020, showing a consistent ability to stay on the field during the 60 game sprint. Duvall has a high ceiling based on his track record with Cincinnati in 2016-2017 as well, as he was an all-star in ‘16 and averaged 32 HR, 101 RBI, a .245 BA, and a .789 OPS over those two seasons. While Duvall won’t necessarily light it up in the batting average department, he has shown consistent power while also compiling a career .983 fielding percentage, and should be a welcome addition in Miami. Aside from adding Duvall, the Marlins’ other two big acquisitions this offseason was in the reliever variety. Adam Cimber was traded to Miami from Cleveland at the end of November and should sure up the bullpen after the Marlins front office decided not to bring back guys like Brandon Kintzler and Brad Boxberger. Cimber was the latter part of the Brad Hand trade back in 2018 but has had a solid MLB career. Since coming up with the Padres in 2018, Cimber has averaged a 3.89 ERA over 162 and should be a consistent weapon for manager Don Mattingly late in ballgames due to his sidearm delivery. Another big reliever added by Miami in an effort to replace the back enders from last season was journeyman reliever Anthony Bass. Bass has had an up and down careerand has moved through six different organizations because of this. However, during the past three seasons with the Cubs, Mariners, and Blue Jays, he has looked more like he did as a rookie coming up with the Padres when he had a 1.68 ERA over 27 games. Since the 2018 season, Bass has averaged a 3.33 ERA and a 7.9 K/9, and looks like the top candidate to take over Kintzler’s role as the closer.
While these three moves were good supplemental additions to this Marlins squad, the majority of the team’s firepower was obviously on the 2020 roster. Third baseman Brian Anderson has arguably been the best player in Miami since his first full season in 2018, averaging 19 HR and 78 RBI with a .793 OPS. Shortstop Miguel Rojas is looked at as the unofficial captain of the Marlins due to his persona on and off the field but has actually put together solid seasons as of late. Miggy Rojas more so fits the mold of the last generations of shortstops, averaging 7 HR, 40 RBI, and a .340 OBP the past three seasons, but is known for his valuable veteran presence. Jesus Aguilar was a much-needed power addition to the Marlins lineup in 2020, bouncing back from a 12 HR season split with Milwaukee and Tampa Bay in 2019. Aguilar had 8 HR and an .809 OPS over 51 games in the shortened campaign, looking more like his all-star season in 2018 when he hit 35 HR, drove in 108 RBI, and had an .890 OPS. Newly signed left fielder Corey Dickerson had an offseason with the Fish in 2020 but should bounce back after averaging 18 HR, 59 RBI, and an .848 OPS from 2014-2019, while receiving an all-star nod with the Rays in 2017 and a gold glove award with Pittsburgh in 2018. Starling Marte was acquired from Arizona at the deadline this past season and played well for Miami down the stretch during their playoff push. Aside from an 80 game PED suspension back in 2017, Marte has had a solid nine-year MLB career, averaging 18 HR, 71 RBI, 40 SB, and a .791 OPS over 162.
As far as the rotation goes, the Marlins have the possibility to have one of the best starting staffs in baseball. Although he may get surpassed by budding superstar Sixto Sanchez sooner rather than later, Sandy Alcantara is the current ace in Miami. He has averaged a 3.71 ERA with a 7.3 K/9 over his first four big-league seasons, while also receiving all-star honors in 2019. After two forgetful seasons with the Fish to begin his career, Pablo Lopez broke out in 2020 with a 3.61 ERA and a 7.9 K/9 over eleven starts and should be locked in as the number two starter. While Sixto Sanchez will begin the first couple of weeks of the season at the alternate site due to a late start on spring training, he compiled a 3.46 ERA and a 7.6 K/9 in seven starts last season, while also coming seventh on rookie of the year voting. The Fish got a taste of October baseball in 2020, sweeping the Cubs on the road at Wrigley Field in the Wild Card Series, only to get swept themselves in the NLDS by the Atlanta Braves. While the current Marlins outfield looks like an intriguing mix of speed, defense, and power, all three starters are free agents after the season and will likely be moved at the deadline if the Marlins are not in the top half of their division. However, with the NL East seemingly up for grabs, it may again be time for the “Bottom Feeders” to take advantage of the opportunity. Can the trio of Alcantara, Lopez, and Sanchez compete with the top threes on other teams in the division? How much more can we expect in terms of on-field results from Brian Anderson? Will the new bullpen additions be enough to hold off excellent offenses late in ballgames? How likely is it that the outfield of Dickerson, Marte, and Duvall are all still wearing Marlins’ uniforms come August 1st? We’ll find out in due time. Although I am predicting Miami to finish in the last place in the division this season, this is the only division where I have every team finishing with a record of above .500. If everything clicks for this Marlins squad while other teams plummet to disaster mode, the Fish could make the playoffs for a second consecutive season for the first time in franchise history. However as the season begins to unfold, Miami is the team with the most to prove due to their lack of superstar names on the roster in 2021.
Starling Marte, CF
Corey Dickerson, LF
Jesus Aguilar, 1B
Brian Anderson, 3B
Adam Duvall, RF
Miguel Rojas, SS
Jorge Alfaro, C
Jon Berti, 2B
Pitcher
Sandy Alcantara
Pablo Lopez
Sixto Sanchez
Elieser Hernandez
Trevor Rogers
Top to bottom, the National League East is the most talented division in all of baseball heading into the 2021 season. Each team has the potential to win the division crown, and that is simply not the case in any other division throughout baseball. While the Atlanta Braves may be considered a slight favorite to most people is they have been in that position the previous three seasons, and have the reigning NL MVP playing first base for them, the acquisition of Francisco Lindor may have changed the entire direction of the Mets franchise should he decide to take an extension, and will at the very least give the Mets a high chance to win this division in 2021. The Nationals have arguably the best hitter in baseball in Juan Soto to go along with what should be a dominant pitching rotation, and could easily find themselves atop the divisional standings if the starting staff does their job. With star power lurking behind every corner in Philadelphia in guys like Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto, and Aaron Nola, the Phillies are hungry to demolish their playoff drought and just may do so if any division rivals falter in the slightest. The starting rotation consisting of Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez, and Sixto Sanchez in Miami can carry three potential Cy Young winners come season's end, and if that is in fact the case, the Marlins will have embraced the underdog role yet again. In six months when the National League playoff bracket is finalized, the NL East may have a completely different outlook than what I am predicting. That is the beauty of baseball, folks. The long wait for the start of the 2021 MLB season is finally over. The first pitch of the season will commence at 1:05 ET this first Thursday of April 2021 when Gerrit Cole takes the mound in the Bronx against the Blue Jays. As fun as it was to make predictions about all thirty teams during these six weeks prior to the season, I think I speak for all baseball fans when I say this in the words of Tom Verducci;
“Welcome back, old friend. It is so good to see you.”
