Justin Fields, Mac Jones, & Armchair Analysis

Author: Matt Iberger

Editor: Fran Attie

It’s finally that time of the year again. When all the football junkies who have been surviving off past season’s highlights, letting their minds race with scenarios of all that could have turned out differently (Tampa Bay fans not included), are about to get some rest: the NFL Draft is upon us!

With less than 48 hours to go until the Jacksonville Jaguars are on the clock, sportswriters, NFL insiders, and even casual fans are making mock drafts faster than we can count. At the end of the day, however, that is all they are; mock drafts—mostly educated guesses on what we expect teams to do, away for a lot of fans to do their own armchair analysis. This is what I want to really focus on since most people seem to miss this point. A majority of people have no idea what NFL teams are thinking behind the scenes, and after any clear “can’t miss prospects” (who aren’t even can’t miss sometimes), it is really hard to say who goes where. The NFL Throwbacks Youtube channel does a great job of highlighting this in their “Hit, Miss or Meh” playlist, where they rate draft picks years after they have been drafted to see if they lived up to expectations. Looking at the 2017 NFL draft video and hearing some of the names makes you cringe, even more so when at the time the pick looked incredibly solid. There were a lot of “mehs” and “misses” in the first round (notable mentions: Solomon Thomas, OJ Howard, Evan Engram, Mitchell Trubisky), which just show how much of a guessing game the first round can be.

So, why do I bring this up? Simply put, despite all the evidence showing this, we still have a lot of people who fail to realize it. “Why did your mock put x players on y team? That’s so stupid!”. Well, to be quite frank, a lot of NFL teams are stupid (which is why all 32 are not equally competitive every year) and all have their own big boards with their own opinions on prospects. It is why you will sometimes see prospects skid or be drafted higher than usual since these NFL executives and scouts see a lot more than we do on what each player is really like. Every draft we have some sort of pot-stirring debate from the draft. Daniel Jones being drafted over Dwayne Haskins (or even at 6 in general) comes to mind, the Josh Allen bust or star debate, or the more recent Tua vs Justin Herbet debate on who the Dolphins should take at quarterback. The thing is, in the moment, these were all reasonable debates, and some of these still are being debated.

This year, it is Mac Jones versus Justin Fields going 3rd overall to San Francisco (or to a lesser extent, Zach Wilson versus Justin Fields for the Jets). Now, a player like Mac Jones who was projected second or less before the season, to mid/late first round during the season, to now top 3 seems like a crazy response to his present success. While fans each have their own particular order on the top 5 quarterbacks of this draft and reasonable film or stats to back it up, what can’t be debated is how little we know about how that will translate into the NFL. This isn’t just quarterbacks though, and I can make this same argument for the Devonta Smith vs Ja’Marr Chase crowd, or even the surge in Kyle Pitts hype in recent weeks. For any player there is a lot that goes into how successful they are and a mock putting a guy you think will be a bust at a higher spot than you like does not mean the world is ending. I am not even a Mac Jones truther myself and am pretty skeptical and agree that 3rd overall would seem fairly high, but the draft community is losing their mind as if there is no chance a Fields, Wilson, or even Lawrence could bust as well. I am not saying to quit the criticism of Mac Jones or any other prospect, but to say we know he’s going to bust seems to be jumping the gun. This could be Mitchell Trubisky all over again, or it could be Justin Herbert/Josh Allen where many people questioned them straight out and they made up for it.

The draft is a crapshoot, and it’s time we hop out of our armchairs and just enjoy making mocks and speculating for the sake of speculating. Sit back and enjoy the ride.

2021 NFL Mock Draft

Author: Kiernan Fischer

Editor: Brian Symons

With the season in the books, it is time to start thinking about the draft. A lot will change between now and April but here is my first mock of the year. I’m deciding to not have trades in this mock even though there will obviously be trades in the real draft. My first mock is going to be about how each team can improve their roster with the pick they have.

1. Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence

Lawrence has been the guy for years now. Let’s move on

2. New York Jets: Zach Wilson QB BYU

Wilson’s stock has shot up after lighting it up at BYU. The highest-rated PFF QB last year will look to lead the Jets back to relevance

3. Miami Dolphins: Penei Sewell OT Oregon

Sewell is the most hyped-up lineman in recent memory and the best non-QB in this class. If the Dolphins do keep this pick I can’t see them passing on him.

4. Atlanta Falcons: Justin Fields QB Ohio State

Matt Ryan isn’t returning to MVP form and the Falcons should pick his replacement in a loaded QB class instead of waiting until his arm is all the way gone. I could see them trading this pick, but either way, Fields will be picked in this spot.

5. Cincinnati Bengals: Jamar Chase WR LSU

With Sewell off the board, the Bengals keep their franchise QB happy and get his college teammate. Chase has the potential to be just as good as his former teammate Justin Jefferson and could give the Bengals two great young receivers.

6. Philly Eagles: Devonte Smith WR Alabama

The Eagles need weapons. I thought about Pitts here but Smith is coming off a Heisman and championship and the Eagles seem to have faith in Goedert at TE. The Eagles stick with Hurts and get him a weapon.

7. Detroit Lions: Micha Parsons LB Penn State

We saw in the Super Bowl how a linebacker that has the speed to cover sideline to sideline can impact a game and with head coach Dan Campbell looking to play hard-nosed defense I see this as a perfect fit.

8. Carolina Panthers: Trey Lance QB North Dakota State

The Panthers move on from the bridge quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and get a potential franchise QB at 8.

9. Denver Broncos: Caleb Farley CB Virginia Tech

In a division with Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes the Broncos take the top corner on the board. While Farley did not play in the 2020 season he’s shown enough to warrant this pick and has the size and speed to keep up with anyone.

10. Dallas Cowboys: Patrick Surtain ll CB Alabama

PFF’s highest-rated corner in college football last season goes to a secondary in need of playmakers. The only thing preventing Surtain from being in the top corner is his lack of elite speed. But he plays fast and has instincts and techniques to make up for it. Whether he or Farley should be the CB1 will be a heated debate up until the draft.

11. New York Giants: Jalen Waddle WR Alabama

The Giants get the playmaker they’ve been missing since trading away Odell Beckham Jr. Getting Jones a top-tier receiver in this class will also help to see if Jones is really the franchise guy.

12. San Fransisco 49ers: Kyle Pitts TE Florida

The 49ers may have other needs to fill but in this scenario, they can’t pass up adding an elite receiving threat to their offense. The 49ers already have some non-traditional hybrid players on their offense with Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Deebo Samuel. Adding Pitts and running 4 wide with two tight ends would be really fun. The Niners already have two tight ends on the field with their run game anyway so this is maybe the best fit for him. By the time April rolls around Pitts may go in the top 5 but right now I’m putting him here.

13. Los Angles Chargers: Rashawn Slater OT Northwestern

The Chargers got their franchise QB last draft and they work on protecting him with this pick. Slater may have opted out in 2020 but he showed that he is a first-round talent with his tape and can play guard or tackle.

14. Minnesota Vikings: Kwity Paye DE Michigan

The Vikings address their D-Line and get what many are calling the top edge rusher in the class which is usually not the case at pick 14.

15. New England Patriots: Christan Barmore DL Alabama

In a weak D-Tackle class, the Patriots pick by far the most talented one available. They look today 2 to get a receiver.

16. Arizona Cardinals: Christan Darrisaw OT Virginia Tech

The Cards choose to go with the breakout lineman to both protect Murray and help in the run game.

17. Las Vegas Raider: Greg Rouseau DE Miami

The Raiders have had a bottom-five pass rush ever since trading Khalil Mack and Rouseau has the length you want to get to the QB. He’s being mocked as high as 11 in other mocks so the Raiders are happy in this scenario to pick him here

18. Miami Dolphins: Jerimiah Owusu-Koramoah LB Notre Dame

The Dolphins get the best coverage linebacker in the draft and add him to an already well-coached and talented defense.

19. Washington Football Team: Jaycee Horn CB South Carolina

With a front four that is one of the best in the NFL Washington goes with a corner to try to give those pass rushers even more time to get to the quarterback.

20. Chicago Bears: Kevin Toney WR Florida

The Bears need receiving help even if Robinson stays, which it is looking like he won’t. No matter who is at QB for Chicago he will need more than what they currently have and they address that with the speedster from Florida.

21. Indianapolis Colts: Alijah Vera-Tucker OT

With Anthony Costanzo retiring the Colt’s waste no time drafting his replacement. Some have said he is a better guard than tackle but here the Colts draft him to play that spot.

22. Tennesee Titans: Azeez Ojulari DE Georgia

The Titans were terrible at rushing the passer last year and they address that with one of the best pure speed rushers in this class and an explosive athlete

23. New York Jets: Najee Harris RB Alabama

The Jets need explosive players around their new franchise QB and they start at the running back spot. With all due respect to legend Frank Gore this will be a significant upgrade for the running game.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers Tevon Jenkins OT Oklahoma State

The Steelers had the worst rushing attack in the league in 2020, yet another weird thing about that year. With LT Andrew Villanueva likely gone and Marcus Pouncey retired the Steelers start rebuilding their offensive line here in the first round.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars: Nick Bolton LB Mizzouri

Urban Myer knows you need fast linebackers in college and in the NFL and Bolton is just that. Bolton will start right away for a rebuilding defense

26. Clevland Browns: Jayson Oweh DE Penn State

The Browns find themselves in unfamiliar territory at the bottom of the draft. The Browns need to improve their defense to compete with the top dogs in the AFC and they draft the fast-rising end from Penn State. Lining him up across from All-Pro talent Myles Garratt could be deadly.

27. Baltimore Ravens: Trevon Moehrig TCU Safety

The Ravens usually take the best available regardless of position and at this stage, I think Moehrig is the best available. He’s the best safety in the class and has lead the nation in pass breakups the past two seasons (PFF)

28. New Orleans Saints: Zaven Collins LB Tulsa

Mac Jones is a popular pick in a lot of mock drafts but I don’t see Jones as a franchise QB and I think the Saints will stick with Jameis Winston and go with Collins to bolster their already talented defense. Collins is a great blitzer and can make plays in the open field and Sean Payton will make sure his skillset is utilized to its full potential.

29. Green Bay Packers: Asante Sammuel Jr. CB Florida State

Anyone who saw Kevin King play in the NFC Championship knows why the Packers are making this pick here.

30. Buffalo Bills: Travis Etienne RB Clemson

Running back is one of the only places the Bills don’t have a standout talent so they try to get a stud back and upgrade their offense which is already elite.

31. Kanas City Chiefs: Jalen Mayfield OT Michigan

The Chiefs could go a lot of ways with this pick but with the sting of the Super Bowl still fresh they get a talented tackle prospect and add depth at the position and ensure Mahomes is always protected.

32. Tampa Bay Joesph Ossai DE Texas

The champs have the most complete roster in football so they take the best available. This pick will become more clear once we know who the Bucs plan to keep for next year with a lot of big decisions to be made this free agency.

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