*WRITTEN PRIOR TO MARCUS SEMIEN SIGNING
With free agency moving slower than usual because of the uncertainty of the Covid-19 pandemic in the 2021 MLB season, Blue Jay fans were starting to doubt the statements made by Mark Shapiro (President of Baseball Ops) and Ross Atkins (General Manager) earlier this offseason regarding their willingness to make significant upgrades to an already playoff caliber team. After all, Toronto was known to be a big player in the DJ LeMahieu sweepstakes. He ended up going back to the division rival Yankees for a six-year, $90 million dollar contract. It was well known that the Jays were also in on trying to acquire Francisco Lindor from Cleveland. He ended up getting traded to the Mets along with Carlos Carrasco, a starting pitcher who could have also shored up Toronto’s rotation had they tried for the same deal. With the need for starting pitching help behind ace Hyun-Jin Ryu, it was reported that the Jays were interested in trading for Joe Musgrove from Pittsburgh. The result? You guessed it. Musgrove will be spending his 2021 season just about as far away from Toronto as any team can be, in San Diego.
When it looked as if the Jays front office was getting overpowered by others around the league, Atkins and Shapiro seemed to have enough. It was announced on Tuesday that the Jays were in an agreement with former Padres closer Kirby Yates. Although not the top free agent on the market, this brought some buzz to the fanbase. When the dust settled on the Yates deal, the Jays made one of, if not, the biggest splashes of the offseason in terms of free agency by signing outfielder George Springer. Now there is a significant upgrade. Springer was by far the best outfielder and hitter in the free agency pool. And as if that wasn’t enough excitement for Blue Jay fans, news broke the next day that the Jays were signing fellow former Astros outfielder Michael Brantley, only to find out later that day that the reports were not accurate and Brantley was actually heading back to Houston, which I will explain in more detail later on. Nevertheless, signing both Yates and Springer are huge moves in their own respects and will most certainly aid the Jays in their attempt to tackle the American East crown.
Since it was announced first, let’s get further into the signing of relief pitcher, and most likely 2021 Blue Jays closing pitcher, Kirby Yates. Yates is coming off an injury shortened season in 2020, needing right elbow surgery in August to remove bone chips. He appeared in only six games, compiling 4.1 innings pitched and an ERA of 12.46; like many players who simply could not get their statistics where they wanted to or were injured for most of the already pandemic shortened 2020 season, Yates’ numbers shouldn’t be heavily scrutinized. After being designated for assignment in 2017 by the Angels, the Padres were quick to scoop him up and were glad they did. From his first appearance as a Padre in 2017 through his first all-star season in 2019, Yates averaged an ERA of 2.35, a WHIP of 0.969, 14.0 K/9, and led the league in saves with 41 after becoming the Padres full time closer in 2019. From looking at the averaged numbers between 2017-2019, it may be difficult to believe that the deal Yates received from Toronto was only for 1-year, $5.5 million with $4.5 million available from performance bonuses for appearances and end of season awards. However, with the market in shambles due to many teams not making as much money in 2020 because of the pandemic, to go along with the fact that the risk-reward with Yates could be teetering on thin ice, it is a deal that can work out very positively or very negatively, with not a lot of financial risk. With the uncertain return of Ken Giles, the Blue Jays closer since his acquisition at the trade deadline in 2018, Toronto would ideally love to slot Kirby Yates into their closer role and hope he can produce similar numbers to his first three seasons in San Diego. Although the soon to be 34-year-old had his fair share of injury issues during 2020, the native Hawaiian will look to bring some good vibes north of the border in 2021.
Now to move on to the bigger headline for the Blue Jays, the signing of outfielder George Springer. Toronto’s front office had been searching all offseason for the guy who they believed would change their organization for the better, with GM Ross Atkins seemingly waiting for the right moment to pounce. It was obvious since the Blue Jays’ got swept in the first round of the expanded playoff format by the American League Pennant winning Tampa Bay Rays that with the right moves this offseason, they had the opportunity to be a legitimate contender for years to come. While Springer had other suitors pursuing him throughout the offseason, most notably the Mets, it was almost inevitable that once the Mets acquired Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco just weeks ago, he would be a Toronto Blue Jay. Springer and the Jays agreed to the largest contract in the teams’ history, with the deal being a 6-year, $150 million dollar contract. This contract was also the largest contract given out to a player this offseason, surpassing the second closest by $60 million (DJ LeMahieu, 6-year, $90 million with NYY). With Springer arguably the best free agent on the market this offseason, it is no surprise he receives a contract of this magnitude. The only question regarding Springer’s eventual contract earlier this winter was how much teams would pay to get him. The deal is done, and Springer should slide right into the lead off spot in the lineup and be the everyday centerfielder come opening day 2021.
Let us get into the numbers and explain exactly why the Toronto Blue Jays spent as much money as they did in order to sign George Springer. After being known as one of the many highly touted prospects in the Houston Astros farm system, Springer was the first one of the bunch called up to the major league roster to join Jose Altuve in April 2014. Since his debut, Springer has averaged 27 home runs, a .268 batting average, a .848 OPS, 71 RBI, and 88 runs scored per season (not including the shortened 2020 season). Now bear in mind, Springer was typically occupying the lead off spot in the lineup recently for the Astros. To have that many RBIs from the lead off spot is a task of its own, but it is also not certain that the Jays will have Springer lead off, which could possibly lead to more RBI opportunities for himself. Nonetheless, it is easy to see why the Blue Jays would want this kind of production added to their lineup. Springer is no slouch on the defensive side of the ball either. The numbers speak for themselves when comparing Springer to Randal Grichuk, the primary center fielder for Toronto in 2020. Grichuk had a fielding percentage of .990 compared to a perfect fielding percentage by Springer at 1.000, which is not that far off. However, when it comes to defensive runs saved, the difference is astronomical. Grichuk had -8 defensive runs saved in 2020 compared to +8 defensive runs saved by Springer, and when looking at the projected DRS if 2020 had been a full season, Grichuk would have been at -24 compared to +21 by Springer. It is obvious the Jays are getting a major upgrade at the center field position, even if years down the road Springer has to move to a corner spot due to a loss of defensive production from the wear and tear of playing on turf in Rogers Centre daily. Plus, it will most likely be a better option to either move Randal Grichuk to a corner outfield spot/designated hitter or trade him for starting pitching help, as he was not a huge success in center field and the Jays now have a surplus of outfielders on their roster.
It cannot be argued that regular season numbers are the most important numbers to look at when signing a player. Someone with injury history year in and year out is not the ideal candidate to add to a roster. However, due to the amount of postseason experience George Springer had in Houston (63 total games) over the seven years he was there, with the fact that he was successful in the postseason even more importantly. While this is the case, it is easy to see why Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins made Springer their priority this offseason. Since his postseason debut against the Yankees in the Bronx in the Wild Card Game in 2015, Springer’s postseason numbers are simply ridiculous. He has compiled 19 home runs, a .269 batting average, a .895 OPS, 38 RBI, and 43 runs scored. Combined with the fact that he hit 5 home runs, had a .379 batting average, a 1.471 OPS, 7 RBI, and 8 runs scored in the seven games in the Astros 2017 World Series victory over the LA Dodgers (while also winning WS MVP honors), Springer has proven he has what it takes to perform in the most adrenaline rushing situations baseball has to offer. And yes, it is not certain if his numbers are skewed because of the Astros cheating scandal in the 2017 postseason (as well as rumors there was cheating involved in 2018 and 2019 with Houston, though not proven). However, something important to look at regarding George Springer are his numbers in the 2020 regular season and postseason. While many of his teammates (Altuve, Correa, Bregman, Gurriel, Reddick, etc.) had down years in 2020 after the cheating scandal was investigated completely and announced prior to the season, it was just another day at the office for Springer. He had a .265 batting average, 14 home runs, a .899 OPS, 32 RBI and 37 runs scored in 51 games out of the 60 total that the Astros played in 2020. If there had been the usual 162 game schedule in 2020, these numbers would have been right around Springer’s averages over the years, if not higher. Many Astros hitters broke out of whatever funk they were in during the regular season once October hit, Springer made sure to keep up and excel. In 13 total games played this postseason, Springer had a .244 batting average, 4 home runs, a .712 OPS, 10 RBI, and 8 runs scored. We may truly never know who exactly cheated or how many seasons/postseasons the Astros cheated for, however what can easily be seen from Springer’s numbers is the fact that they were still superb once there was absolutely no cheating involved whatsoever, and Blue Jays fans will look for big things from Springer come October. If the Jays make projected playoff pushes soon, Springer will also be a mentor and clubhouse leader for the young players who received a taste of postseason baseball in 2020, which had to have crossed the minds of executives in Toronto’s front office. Although there are no numbers to quantify clubhouse presence, George Springer has already become a household name in Blue Jays baseball and hasn’t even played in a game yet. As the Jays have not won a World Series title since 1993, its likely Blue Jays fans are looking forward to seeing Springer lift up the Commissioner’s Trophy in Toronto at least once over this upcoming six year run, with optimistic hopes for more.
While Blue Jays fans were still taking in the fact that they got their star outfielder and hopeful 2020 closer, news broke on Wednesday that they had signed Michael Brantley to a 3-year deal by several well trusted reporters throughout the league. This news was just the icing on the cake for Jays fans, as they thought their team could have been improving even more significantly in the span of just two days. On top of this, Jays fans were even more ecstatic with George Springer because reports came out that Springer helped the Blue Jays get Brantley to come to Toronto because of their close friendship from playing together for two years in Houston. However, just hours after the first report surfaced about the deal, reporters began to refute their original statements saying the deal wasn’t done, but Toronto was still extremely interested. Not long after, it was announced that Brantley had agreed to a 2-year, $32 million dollar deal to remain in Houston, where he played previously in 2019 and 2020. Now, there was either a deal in place with Toronto and Brantley and the Astros swooped in and gave him more money/more years on his deal, or there was massive miscommunication between the sources first reporting the deal and the Blue Jays front office. Whatever the case may be, Michael Brantley will not be a Toronto Blue Jay. However, there is no need to hit the panic button, Jays fans. Although Brantley would have been another welcome addition to the team, it would have crowded the outfield/designated hitter positions even more and more trades would have had to been made. With rumors starting to surface that former Yankees starting pitcher Masahiro Tanaka has been intrigued with the moves made by Toronto this offseason, it may be the perfect storm for the Jays to steal him away from the Bronx and get revenge for losing DJ LeMahieu to their division rival. Coveted free agent starting pitcher Trevor Bauer has also been linked to Toronto for much of the offseason, although it’s unclear how “in” the Jays are after the Springer signing and depending on the length and amount of money on contracts they wanted to give out, it may have been more difficult with the signing of Brantley. The sweet swinging Brantley would have most likely excelled in Toronto, but I doubt Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins are done making moves before the offseason is over.
In what has now been a whirlwind of a few days for Blue Jay fans, the overall consensus of the fanbase has to be positive and excited for what is to come. With the core already intact north of the border(Bichette, Biggio, Guerrero Jr, Gurriel Jr, Hernandez, Tellez, and Pearson), and the expectation that Hyun-Jin Ryu will be the ace he has been the previous two seasons with the Dodgers and Blue Jays respectively, it was the perfect time for the front office to make some bold moves and show that they are ready to compete for not only future wild card spots, but to be American League East Champions, American League Pennant Champions, and World Series Champions for years to come. If healthy, it is safe to assume that Kirby Yates will be back to elite form and closing games for the Jays. As for Springer, he just needs to play the game the same way he always has and let his teammates around him do the rest. Despite question marks still surrounding where the Blue Jays will play their home games in 2021 due to the Covid-19 pandemic, with Sahlen Field in Buffalo, NY seeming less likely to be an option with a triple-A season projected to occur, there is quite a lot of excitement coming from Toronto fans. As possibly the most unique team in the four major sports today due to their fan base spreading throughout an entire country, it is always good for baseball to have Canadian teams in the mix for contention. The Jays front office has now made good on their commitment to upgrade their “on the field” product in 2021. What else could Shapiro and Atkins have up their sleeves this offseason, you may ask? No one is to say for certain, but I guarantee fans and followers of the Toronto Blue Jays are itching to find out.
