The Miami Heat and Los Angeles Lakers are set to play in the NBA finals tonight. Neither team made the playoffs last season, but now with a championship on the line, it comes down to who can make the biggest plays, on the biggest stage, in the biggest moment.
The recipe for a championship is different for each team. And with the series just a few days away, it's time deep dive on how either team can claim NBA immortality.
Miami’s journey to the NBA finals has been an interesting one. They swept through Indiana with absolute ease. They shocked the basketball world in the second round by taking down Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks, and in the Eastern Conference finals they closed out the Celtics in six.
The Heat got to the finals on the back of head coach Erik Spoelstra's defensive versatility. Against Indiana, Miami deployed a strategy of switch-ability. With Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Jae Crowder, and Andre Iguodala, the Heat had the necessary forward and wing players to throw at the Pacers guards. Indiana struggled to not only score but contended for second-chance points. Miami featured a higher offensive rebound rate than Indiana, and in the end, the lack of wing shot creation for the Pacers played directly into Miami's game plan.
The ensuing series against the Bucks saw the Heat build on the notion of switch-ability and perimeter length. This was the foundation of the wall they built to slow Giannis down and limit the Bucks in the realm of offensive creativity.
The formula to beat Milwaukee was to keep Giannis out of transition, and in the half-court show him three or four defenders, walling off the paint, leaving the other Bucks players to beat you.
It worked to perfection. Though Giannis’ counting box score statistics look good at a glance, his impact on the court wasn’t as devastating as it was during the regular season. Spoelstra deployed Adebayo as a Giannis stopper at the rim, and the double and triple teams forced him into turnovers. They made life difficult for Giannis, and the other Bucks were unable to provide enough of an offensive push to pull Miami out of its defensive game plan.
Miami in the conference finals deployed a 2-3 or 3-2 matchup zone on almost all of their defensive possessions that came after a Celtics made basket.
This zone seemingly confused the Celtics and stifled a bevy of their offensive sets. Often they would have a wing flash in the middle of the zone, but when they would catch the ball they wouldn’t look to score, but instead to pass.
The zone look invited the Celtics to take threes. Though somewhat open, they were not great shots. This was the Celtics downfall in game six of the series. In the fourth quarter, when Miami was sitting in its intense zone, Boston went 2-13 from three. That made the difference for the Celtics as Miami then went on a 26-6 run to eventually close out the game and series.
In the end, the Zone made all the difference.
For the Heat to beat the Lakers, the answer lies in if they stick with Spoelstra’s defensive versatility.
The Lakers two All-NBA forwards need different looks thrown at them on any given possession. With the gravity LeBron James carries on the floor, being able to commit two or three players to shade his way could help slow down his offensive onslaught.
To stop Anthony Davis, it comes down to if Adebayo will be able to limit his offensive game. Davis is a unicorn who has the size, speed, handles, and great shooting touch. But Adebayo provides mobility, switch-ability, and a good counter at the center spot.
If Adebayo can slow down Davis, and the Heat zone throws off LeBron, there is a good chance Miami makes this a close series.
It is also important to keep in mind that the last team to deploy zone at this level, the 2011 Dallas Mavericks, beat LeBron in the finals. A zone look can slow LeBron’s offensive game, but it also is a matter of time before an offensive mind like James figures it out. That is why the versatility aspect is crucial if the Heat hope to make it a close series. Different defensive looks can throw off offensive sets.
The Lakers run to the NBA finals has felt more like a journey of destiny than anything else. They have dismantled every opponent in their way in five games, and often those matchups haven’t been close.
The Trailblazers series featured a Blazers team that just wasn’t equipped to deal with the Lakers two All-NBA forwards. They were injured and beat down from their eight-seeding game run, and the result was an easy series for the Lakers.
Round two for the Lakers saw a super small ball Houston team. The changes Frank Vogel and the Lakers made were to play Davis exclusively at the five to match up better with Houston's pace of play.
They also deployed a level of switch-ability to keep in check James Harden. The Lakers often threw three-to-four defenders in Harden’s direction. They played off of guys like Russell Westbrook, and P.J Tucker, daring them to shoot.
This resulted in Westbrook’s worst statistical postseason series in recent memory. With no co-star, Harden was creating on his own with no real secondary threat to avert the pressure of the Lakers defense.
In the end, Houston did not pose a real threat to the Lakers, and that was seen after game two.
The Western Conference Finals:
The Western Conference Finals featured the comeback kids in Denver.
Game two saw Anthony Davis summon the spirit of Kobe Bryant with the best game-winning shot of the postseason.
The Lakers elected to go big to match up with Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic. This meant starting Dwight Howard at the center. The Jokic and Howard matchup proved pivotal. For an extended period in games three, four, and five, Jokic was in foul trouble.
With Jokic off the floor and Murray hampered with a right leg injury, Denver couldn’t get their offense off the ground.
Game six displayed a LeBron James super-human performance, and a fourth-quarter that told the world that he still had it. LeBron finished the game with 38 points, 16 rebounds, and 10 assists. It was a LeBron performance that would keep Skip Bayless up at night. It was the first time in the bubble where LeBron looked completely aggressive, and the Nuggets had no answer for the matchup.
For the Lakers to win the finals it will take them utilizing the team's length in the frontcourt. With bigs like Howard, Davis, and McGee, Miami will be forced to match up with their length.
Adebayo stands 6’9”, and with him being undersized for the five spot, the Lakers have an opportunity to win the rebounding battle in the series, which means more possessions for LeBron and Davis.
The second key for the Lakers is continued reliance on Anthony Davis. He is the unicorn of this team, and LeBron has frequently said that the team will go as far as Davis can take them. If the Lakers hope to win the title, it starts with getting Davis the ball early.
With Davis engaged, he will be more active on the glass, and his defensive presence will be ominous for Adebayo and Miami. He brings too much to the table to not start every game with at least five or six straight touches.
The third key for the Lakers is making sure LeBron is completely engaged and not passive. We have seen a mixed bag out of LeBron's second halves. If he can stay engaged for a full 48-minutes, the Lakers are likely to win the series.
