Author: Joshua Finkelstein
Despite spending 832 million pounds in Pep Guardiola’s reign with the club and having a net deficit of 567 million pounds, Manchester City are in 13th place after 8 games. Yes, 13th. As Yashish brought up in the previous podcast after City lost to Tottenham, Pep’s team has finished in the bottom half of the PL at the end of a match week for 5 consecutive weeks. In his whole career before this season, Pep only saw that happen to him twice. Manchester City are already 8 points behind first placed Tottenham, with a game in hand, and only 9 match weeks have been played. So how is it possible that the most expensive and highest quality squad ever assembled in the Premier League, and maybe even in Europe, currently has a record of a mid table team (3 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses), finished 18 points behind Liverpool last season, and has never won the UCL. If Pep is one of the best managers in the world, then how is Manchester City underperforming this much?
Before I get into it, I know people reading this are thinking, “how are Manchester City underperforming? They won the league for 2 straight years, getting a combined 198 points!” Well, yes. What Manchester City did in those 2 years was incredible, and they also won the Carabao Cup and FA Cup a couple of times. That being said, we need some background on their achievements under Pep. City had a strong football heritage before Guardiola took charge, as Jose Mourinho once said in his 12 minute analysis on his club’s (Manchester United’s) struggles in achieving the fans’ expectations during the 2017/2018 season. In that analysis, Mourinho describes Manchester City’s football heritage before Pep perfectly. He says, “In the last 7 years, the worst position of Manchester City in the Premier League was 4th.
In the last 7 years, Manchester City was the champion twice… And they were 2nd twice. That’s heritage. Do you know what’s also heritage? Is that Otamendi, Kevin De Bruyne, Fernandinho, Silva, Sterling, Agüero, they are investments from the past. Not from the last 2 years. From the past.” When Pep came to Manchester City, he already had squads built from Roberto Mancini and Manuel Pellegrini, with experienced Premier League title winners and star players, such as De Bruyne, Fernandinho, Sterling, David Silva, and Agüero, who have been the best players for Manchester City under Pep despite how much money was spent. Coupled with the high quality, experienced squad that Pep already had and the amount of money the club spent in his first two seasons, it should come as no surprise that Manchester City blew over the league with 100 points and then 98 in the following season.
So let’s start with Pep Guardiola’s first season at Manchester City and see how they performed. In the summer of 16/17 season, City spent 193 million pounds and finished 3rd with 78 points. In that season, they finished behind Spurs by 8 points, even though they hardly spent any money. In many of the games, Manchester City were destroyed, like their 4-0 loss against Everton and their 4-2 loss against Leicester. In the Champions League, after making the UCL semi finals in the previous season under Pellegrini, City lost on away goals against Monaco in the last 16. After such a successful UCL campaign in the previous season, City were expected to take it a level up with Pep in charge, but they finished worse off instead. In the cup competitions, the Citizens disappointed as well. They got knocked out in the 4th round in the Carabao Cup, a competition that Manchester City won in the previous season under Pellegrini, and the semifinals of the FA Cup. Despite spending a lot of money and supposedly having a much better coach, Manchester City were knocked out of the UCL earlier than in their previous campaign and were trophy-less in the 2016/2017 PL season.
In the summer of the 2017/2018 season, City rebuilt their back 4 by spending 126 million pounds and signing Benjamin Mendy for 51 million, Kyle Walker for 48 million, and Danilo for 27 million pounds. In addition, Aymeric Laporte signed in January for 59 million pounds, and City also signed Ederson for 36 million, Bernardo Silva for 45 million, and Douglas Luiz for 11 million pounds. These signings really transformed Manchester City into an unstoppable force. They achieved a historic season by winning the PL with the highest point tally in history—100 points. In addition, the Citizens won the Carabao Cup. However, they will be disappointed about their UCL performance. City got knocked out by losing 5-1 on aggregate against Liverpool, who were the only difficult opponent they faced in the competition that season, in the UCL quarter finals. Manchester City were once again disappointing in the FA Cup; they were eliminated in the 5th round against Wigan Athletic, who were in League 1 at the time. Despite those failures, especially in the UCL, Pep Guardiola had a very successful and historic season after splashing the cash on defenders.
After such an impressive season, Manchester City did not revolutionize the team in the 2018/2019 season, but they did make a key addition to the squad: City bought Riyad Mahrez for 61 million pounds. In a very competitive title challenge against an amazing Liverpool team, who had a positive net spend since Klopp was hired in 2015, while City had a negative net spend of 385 million pounds since Pep was hired in 2016, Manchester City won the league by 1 point and earned 98 in total, which is a phenomenal points tally. City also won the Carabao Cup and the FA Cup. However, in the competition that Manchester City are desperate to win, they lost in the UCL Quarter Finals against Spurs, on away goals.
In the 2019/2020 season, Manchester City spent 150 million pounds to improve their already insane squad. City signed Rodri for 63 million pounds, João Cancelo for 58 million pounds, Angeliño for 10 million pounds, and Pedro Porro for 11 million pounds. Despite all the money that was spent, Manchester City had a really poor season for their standards, which showed that despite all the money, they were not able to replace their departing captain Vincent Kompany. In the PL, City finished 18 points behind Liverpool, and got knocked out in the UCL quarter finals again. This time they lost to Lyon 3-1. City also lost in the FA Cup semi finals against Arsenal, who won the competition. However, they won the Carabao Cup once again. For such an amazing squad, they really underperformed in most of the competitions they played in. In that season, Manchester City lost every away match against the teams in the top 7 of the PL, except for Leicester, who City beat 1-0. They lost to Liverpool 3-1, to Manchester United 2-0, to Chelsea 2-1, to Tottenham 2-0, and lost 3-2 to Wolves. These results are really disappointing for a squad as incredible as Manchester City’s.
Before the current 2020/2021 PL season, Manchester City splashed another 134 million pounds on signings like Ferrán Torres for 20 million pounds, Nathan Aké for 40 million pounds, Rúben Dias for 65 million pounds, and Pablo Moreno for 9 million pounds. Despite splashing this much money, Manchester City currently have a record of a mid table team. Despite all the money they have spent, they have not dominated the PL like they aimed to when Pep Guardiola became in charge of the club. This season, it looks like City will not be even close to being in the title race for a second consecutive season. Perhaps, City may not even finish 2nd, as teams like Tottenham and Chelsea are performing really well. A superb squad like City’s should be winning if not challenging for the title every season. In three of the five years of Pep being in charge, they have not been close to challenging for a title. With that being said, City could start gaining form after their defeat against Tottenham and get back into the title race. However, after their first 8 matches, they have already lost a lot of ground on Liverpool and the other sides. Even Manchester United are ahead of Manchester City!
This season, Manchester City do not seem to have the sharpness and conviction in front of goal that they normally have. We could see the results of that in their matches. While Manchester City have the highest average possession in the league (62.3%), and second highest shots per game (15.6), they have been struggling to convert their possession and shots into scoring opportunities and goals. Manchester City’s shots on target per match is the 5th highest in the league (5.4). Out of these shots, Manchester City created only 12 big chances, which is the 9th highest in the league, and scored only 1.3 goals per match, which is the 13th highest in the league. Having the 9th highest big chances in the league and the 13th highest amount of goals scored per match are dreadful statistics, especially for such a superb side like Manchester City. Obviously, something is wrong in the dressing room. As mentioned in the previous podcast, Manchester City do not seem to have the confidence to express themselves. Rather than taking chances, they just focus on ball possession and play safe. This struggle highlights how Pep has underperformed for City.
In the past few years, Manchester City have not had the best recruitment. Big signings like John Stones, Benjamin Mendy, and Danilo have all flopped, and Aké could be following soon. Those four players cost a combined 168 million pounds. In addition, players like Nolito, Douglas Luiz, and Angeliño also flopped for the Citizens, which adds another 37 million pounds. Notably, City signed Claudio Bravo for 15.4 million pounds and he absolutely flopped. He made terrible mistakes game after game that led to goals. City were forced to sign Ederson for 35 million pounds after the disastrous signing of Bravo. Overall, City wasted 220.4 million pounds on flop players, which is a lot of money. The fact that they were able to replace signings like Stones and Bravo with better players illustrates the amount of money they have to spend and the luxury Pep Guardiola has, which many managers unfortunately do not.
Furthermore, Guardiola has not made the most out of the players he has in his squad. With arguably the best and most talented squad in Europe, Manchester City have not performed to their potential, especially this season. They should be destroying the league and should certainly be winning at least one UCL in Pep’s reign. However, they have not been anywhere near meeting those high expectations for the past two seasons. Currently, City look like a group of eleven world class individuals rather than a world class team. When good teams set up the right way against Pep, they find success against them. For the past two years, we have seen Lampard, Mourinho, Nuno, Ole, and Arteta outsmart Guardiola by being organized in the back and having efficient counterattacks. This season, more teams are finding success against them. Out of their three wins, Manchester City were only convincing against Wolves. Their other two wins were unconvincing 1-0 wins against Arsenal and Sheffield United. It is clear that Pep has not been able to get his players to perform at their best for the past two seasons.
In addition, Pep has not been able to produce or sign leaders. Since Kompany’s departure, Manchester City have lacked a leader that could lead the squad through difficult times. Coupled with David Silva’s departure this summer, City definitely have no leaders in the squad. They may have been in a better position in that department if Pep was willing to keep players like Joe Hart and Yaya Touré. Instead, Pep prioritized having players able to play his tiki-taka style. Manchester City spent money on talent and did not focus on buying leaders. In difficult moments like this, the squad lacks a leader to motivate the players.
Furthermore, Guardiola tends to overthink his tactics for the big games. For example, in this past season’s UCL quarter final against Lyon, Manchester City decided to play 3 at the back rather than play their normal 4-3-3 formation in order to nullify Lyon’s strengths. The formation change caused City to not play through their strengths and they lost that game. Pep also overthought matches against Liverpool at Anfield in the UCL and Premier League, and against Barcelona in the UCL semi finals when he was at Bayern.
Finally, Guardiola has never built a club before. In his career, he has managed established teams, such as Barcelona, Bayern Munich, and Manchester City with owners who are more than willing to splash 100-200 million pounds per season on players. He cannot be compared to managers like Jürgen Klopp, Carlo Ancelotti, José Mourinho, Marcelo Bielsa, and Rafa Benitez, or even managers like Eddie Howe and Chris Wilder who outperform the expectations with limited funding by having great tactics and great player-management skills.
While Pep Guardiola should be applauded for his many successes in his career, such as winning the treble with an incredibly talented Barcelona side, earning two consecutive league titles for Manchester City with incredible point tallies, winning a quadruple for City in the 2018/2019 PL season, and winning three consecutive Bundesliga titles at Bayern Munich, Pep should not be rated as one of the best managers in world football. In Bayern, he was unable to win the UCL with a team that won the UCL before he took charge. In Manchester City, Pep has been unable to dominate the Premier League as he hoped to, especially in the past two seasons, and has not been able to win the UCL yet. Now, with City giving Pep a new two year deal, it will be interesting to see how he manages the team in these difficult times, and if he can prove the doubters wrong. However, at the moment, I think there is no debate that Guardiola is one of the most overrated managers in world football. He is definitely not one of the best managers in the world.