The JJ Watt Sweepstakes

Author: Matt Iberger

Editor: Aaron Mesco

It’s the end of an era for Houston. J.J. Watt, the golden child of both the Texans franchise and the city of Houston itself, will become a free agent as both sides agreed it was in their best interests to be let go. Of course, we can rag on the Texans for not getting anything in return for their star DE, but it seemed at the end of the day it was less of a headache for both sides if he was simply released and found his next team on his own. Where does the NFL star go next, and is the J.J. Watt phenomena we have in our minds still the JJ Watt we see on the field?

To put it quite simply, I believe that J.J. Watt, while not in his prime anymore, does not have one foot in the nursing home like some suggest. His brother T.J. has been getting the spotlight recently for his fantastic start to his career in Pittsburgh, J.J. should not be forgotten. Looking at the average aging curve for defensive linemen, yes most do see drop-offs and quick retirements around their early 30s, but J.J is no ordinary defensive lineman. So while his stats may seem down and look like he is nearing the end I do not think this is exactly the case. J.J. might not be the one-man wrecking crew that he was back in 2012 or 2014 when he had 20.5 sacks, but plug him into an above-average defensive line and it might feel like you are back in 2014. Keep in mind the man was double-teamed 30% of the time last season, the most among defensive ends. We have to remember that the Texans team outside of Watson and Watt had no real star power; it was an uphill battle for both of them. Watson being young and talented enough could show his talent without much help, Watt who is more aged needs some more oil to keep the gears going. That oil is a competent rusher alongside him, and there are a couple of teams with super bowl aspirations who might fit the bill. I can see him taking something around Calais Campbell’s salary of 12.5 million, but this is all just based on my own assumptions as I have no real connection to Watt’s camp. The cap for the 2021 NFL season has not been announced yet, so I’ll just be thinking of teams J.J could go to even if the cap space does not really line up but is close enough. With Father Time slowly catching up on the older Watt, he might be more inclined to take a team-friendly deal to push a d-line over the edge in terms of skill and hopefully win a ring.

The number one spot where people can really see the older Watt land is in Pittsburgh. Steelers fans like myself would be ecstatic if J.J came to join T.J. in black and gold. Pittsburgh right now is projected over the cap by about 14 million which makes this move difficult, but if J.J wants to come then you bet the front office will try to find a way to make it work. It’ll just be hard with the salary cap hell the Steelers are in with Big Ben’s massive contract for 2021. They will have to decide whether letting some other FAs walk (Zach Banner, Bud Dupree, James Conner, Juju, Alejandro Villaneuva all come to mind) and hope that they can just run over teams with a good old fashioned defense like the 2015 Denver Broncos carrying Manning to a super bowl victory. What I do think is more likely is Watt coming down to Tampa Bay to fill a Shaq Barrett-sized hole if Barrett was to leave in free agency. In my opinion, Tampa Bay’s free agency will come down to who out of Godwin, David, or Barrett are willing to let walk.

Personally, I would try to sign Barrett and David, but J.J Watt would be a nice consolation prize if Barrett was to go get paid elsewhere. Destinations after this get a little bit murky based on cap situation, fit, and also super bowl probability. For sleeper destinations, I would not count out the Bills or 49ers. Both are teams with super bowl aspirations and relatively ok on cap space right now. I find these less likely than the above scenarios, but still, options to join a defensive line with some star power. I know Green Bay is a popular pick but I just do not see it happening because of the free agents they need to resign. I know Pittsburgh should fall in the same category with their cap situation, but I give them a pass mainly because I think T.J would be inside the organization really hammering to get his brother a spot if J.J did want to come. I still would place Tampa Bay above all other options, but do not count out any other teams from this sweepstakes. If your team is playoff material and not doing its due diligence on J.J Watt, then it is time for your front office to go. Despite getting older J.J is primed to age like fine wine, and you do not want to be the offensive lineman that will have to line up one on one against him next season.

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