Author: Steven Chase
Editor: Brian Symons
April 2021 saw its ups and downs for the orange and blue. We saw the breakouts of players such as Brandon Nimmo, JD Davis, Marcus Stroman, Miguel Castro, and others. We also saw Jacob deGrom continue to show why he is the best pitcher in baseball. But, we saw players such as Francisco Lindor, Joey Lucchesi, and a few others struggle. The Mets finished April 9-11, amidst a three-game losing streak. To sum up April for the Mets, the best term is inconsistency; let’s get into it.
Firstly, let’s start off the good. Jacob deGrom comes to mind before anyone else. The April Pitcher of the Month posted a 0.51 ERA, 0.82 FIP, 0.57 WHIP, 1.38 SIERA, and a 1.48 xERA for this timespan. With the exception of possibly Corbin Burnes, nobody was particularly close to deGrom this month. This was to be expected by the 2 time Cy Young, and will most likely continue throughout the rest of the season. Additionally, the resurgence of Pete Alonso was seen to start off in 2021. Through May 3rd, Alonso has a 142 wRC+, .382 xWOBA, .578 xSLG, along with a few absolute moon shots. We have not seen this production from Alonso since the 2019 season, and I hope to see it continue throughout the rest of the season. In addition to Alonso, JD Davis and Brandon Nimmo have been electric to start off the season. Nimmo (148 wRC+) and Davis (198 wRC+) have been the Mets only hitters with above a .300 batting average, and have been a key part in all Met wins. To add on, Michael Conforto, who had an OPS under .600 to start the season, has brought his wRC+ back up to 118 to close out April.
Conforto, who bats third in the lineup, will need to keep this up for the Mets to win. On the pitching end, the bullpen has been electric. As of April 27th, the Mets had a 3.16 SIERA (2nd), 74 xFIP- (1st), 66 FIP- (1st), and 29.7 K% (2nd). A few stand-out performers throughout this span have been Aaron Loup (1.64 SIERA), Miguel Castro (1.69 SIERA), Trevor May (2.01 SIERA), and of course Edwin Diaz (3.62 SIERA). Diaz had a couple of rough outings in between some elite outings, which heavily raised his numbers. Evidently, even without Seth Lugo, the Mets bullpen has been elite. The bullpen feeds right into the starting pitching, which is good but not quite as good. Marcus Stroman (1.84 ERA, 3.51 SIERA, and 3.22 xFIP) has been very solid to start off the season. Considering that by summer, the Mets will have both Syndergaard and Carrasco back, Stroman is a great 4th starter. Following Stroman, Peterson has bounced back from a rough start in Philly to end April with a 2.85 xFIP and 3.22 SIERA. Although he has been overshadowed by deGrom and Stroman, Peterson has proved that he deserves the fifth spot in the rotation when fully healthy.
Now for the bad. The Mets have a .240 team BA, which is alright, but the concerns come from the teams .209 BA with RISP. This has been a large concern for the Mets since the start of 2019. Although he hasn’t been particularly bad, Taijuan Walker has had a confusing start to the season. Although he has a respectable 3.00 ERA, he has ranked towards the bottom of the league in hard-hit metrics; A 5.06 xERA and 4.33 xFIP shows that Walker has been somewhat lucky to be where he is to start the season. He should be in long relief once Syndergaard and Carrasco come back, as David Peterson has better metrics to start the year.
On the other hand, Jeff McNeil has been pretty unlucky to start the year. McNeil has a .235 batting average so far, which is unlike him as he came into this year with a .319 lifetime batting average. McNeil is middle of the back in max exit velo (59th percentile), but below average in barrels (21st percentile). He has a .335 xWOBA and a 105 wRC+, but things are trending up for McNeil as he had a 4 hit night in Philadelphia. Although things are looking up for McNeil, this is not the case for Francisco Lindor. The 341 million dollar man has not been comfortable in the box to start off 2021. Amidst an 0 for 21 stretch, Lindor has a .163/.284/.209 slash line along with a 51 wRC+ and .311 xWOBA. Obviously, the power has been non-existent for Lindor, and he has not been getting on base much either. Lindor has a 7.1 UZR/150, so his offense has not impacted his defense. But, the offensive numbers have not been pretty for Lindor. Personally, I am not very worried, as Lindor has gotten out of slumps like this before in Cleveland. But for now, it's ugly. Additionally, James McCann has also been a failed contract so far (3 years for 37 million dollars) as he has posted a 55 OPS+. Although he has portrayed a strong arm, he has done nothing at the plate. Finally, we will examine Joey Lucchesi.
Lucchesi has given up a great deal of hard contact and finds himself with a 4.30 xFIP along with a 10.13 ERA. Obviously, it's hard for a team to win if they have a pitcher giving up over 10 runs per 9 innings, and hopefully, Luccehessi will improve going into May and June.
To conclude, the Mets have had their good and bad moments in 2021. Even though the first 20 games have seen them 2 games below .500 they have one of the best rosters in the MLB, and things will improve once the team is fully healthy and Lindor’s bat comes around.
METS ARE OUR UNIVERSE
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