Red Birds Fly High in NL Central

Author: Jordan Plompen

Editor: Brian Symons

The 2020 MLB season brought many new rules and regulations, with the vast majority being implemented due to the covid-19 pandemic. Most notably those changes were the addition of a league wide designated hitter, an expanded number of playoff teams, doubleheaders changing to two seven inning games, and the geographical modifications of teams’ playing schedules to lessen the amount of travel during the truncated season. Because of the latter change, the AL East played themselves and only the NL East, with both the central and the western divisions following suit until playoff time ensued. While at the time this decision was made official it was a no brainer, it did come with some complications surrounding team win-loss records from the AL and NL central, leading to the reality that seven out of the sixteen playoff teams came out of central divisions.

Although from the outside looking in this may make it seem as if these were the most competitive divisions, the actuality of the situation was that no team was good enough to run away with division leads. To be blunt, the AL central and NL central were filled with mediocre to borderline terrible teams. The ones that were able to sniff out a playoff spot were in for a rude awakening when facing higher caliber ballclubs, as not one team from either central division made it past the newly instated best of three wild card round. Simply put, it was a silent October for baseball fans in the middle of the country. Even though certain teams had relatively close series’ with their opponents, close was not good enough. Flash forward to January 27th, 2021, and arguably the biggest improvement made in either central division was the White Sox acquisition of starter Lance Lynn/signing of closer Liam Hendricks or the Cubs signing of outfielder Joc Pederson. Although each of those moves were necessary improvements in their own respect for each Chicago squad, neither quite had the headlines that the Cardinals did the last weekend of January.

In an expected but long awaited move on Friday, St. Louis re-signed lifetime ace Adam Wainwright back to a 1-year contract. Wainwright, now 39 years of age, will get at least one more season with the Cardinals to push for his second career World Series title. As one of the most well liked and well respected players in our game today, even Cubs fans may be glad to be competing with their long time rival in what may be the last season of his career. Now, from the way I talked about both central divisions earlier, anyone who knows baseball knows that Adam Wainwright couldn’t have been the enormous headline surrounding St. Louis this previous weekend. Well folks, you would be correct in that assumption. With Cardinals fans still digesting the fact that they would have Waino back this season, rumors began to surface later on Friday that St. Louis was in talks with Colorado to try and acquire a certain third baseman known as Nolan Arenado. To anyone who looked at these trade rumors with a grain of salt, I was right there with you. It seems as if Arenado trade talks have been floating around since the day he signed his extension with the Rockies back in 2019. This time, however, we were proven wrong in what seemed like mere hours. What had seemed both inevitable and impossible the past two seasons surrounding Nolan Arenado became a reality late Friday night, as the Red Birds pried the premierly talented third baseman away from Rockies ownership. Obviously both moves will resonate differently with fans of the Cardinals in their own ways. With there being more to unpack with the Arenado acquisition that the re-signing of Adam Wainwright, I’ll first talk about the return of a familiar face added back to the pitching rotation.

Although there was never really any question regarding the return of Adam Wainwright to the Cardinals (aside from speculation of retirement), the deal finally became official. Funnily enough, there was a report that surfaced on Friday that Wainwright had indeed returned to St. Louis. The report, however, stated that Waino had signed with the St. Louis Blues. Perpetually known as a jokester in the clubhouse, this was all Wainwright needed to continue the charade, as he took to Twitter dressed in a Blues uniform and makeshift hockey gear. Come on, Blues. Can’t you at least give Wainwright a shot as the fourth goalie? Guess we’ll have to wait and see how your hockey career turns out Adam. All jokes aside, Cardinals fans have to be ecstatic with the news that Wainwright is returning. The 1-year contract, worth a reported $8-million dollars, locks Waino up through his 40th birthday, and into a hopeful deep October run for the Red Birds in 2021. The 15-year veteran had his best season since 2015 in the shortened 2020 season, with a 5-3 record, an ERA of 3.15, a WHIP of 1.051, and 7.4 K/9 over ten games started. Even though it wasn’t as many starts as he is projected to have over a full season in 2021 and his statistics may worsen because of this, Wainwright’s veteran leadership cannot be overlooked. On August 15th, in what was arguably the most important game of the Cardinals season after not playing for seventeen straight days due to a covid-19 outbreak in the clubhouse, Wainwright righted the ship, tossing 5 innings of one run ball in the eventual 5-1 victory over the Chicago White Sox. Yes, the Red Birds have pitchers like Miles Mikolas and Jack Flarehty who may have had the same result in an important game. However, I bet if almost any Cardinals fan was asked who they would have wanted to start that game it would have been Wainwright. With a been there, done that attitude mixed together with the hunger for another world championship, Waino is poised to pitch more big games in St. Louis this season.

In order to look at the Wainwright signing in a full circle perspective, let’s dive deeper into his numbers from the previous several seasons. In the whirlwind turn of events that was the 2011 postseason run for the Cardinals that led to their 11th World Series Title, many people forget that Wainwright had no contributions on the field due to recovering from Tommy John surgery. Because this can easily be looked at as a turning point in his career, we can look at his average numbers from 2012 to present day per season. Since the 2012 season, Wainwright has averaged a 3.60 ERA, a 1.124 WHIP, and 7.6 K/9. Although some seasons were more abbreviated than others due to injury or a little thing known as covid-19, these are solid statistics for a guy who is about to turn 40 this season. I can guarantee that if Wainwright has a season in 2021 similar to his averages over the previous nine seasons, Cardinals fans will be proud of every penny general manager Mike Girsh and president of baseball ops John Mozeliak spent to bring him back. Aside from the fact that Wainwright has had more than respectable regular season numbers, his postseason numbers are not to be ignored. With the Cardinals only missing the playoffs three times in the past nine years, Wainwright has a large sample size to base this statement off of. Since the 2012 postseason, Waino has posted a 3.91 ERA, a 1.312 WHIP, and 9.5 K/9 in the playoffs. Although the numbers don’t particularly jump off the page, one thing is clear; Waino always gives his team a chance to win when it matters most. A player many view to be a hall of famer at the very least in 10-15 years from now, Adam Wainwright will try to contribute to the 12th World Series title in franchise history, while adding a 2nd title to his career resume. You have to imagine that Wainwright and the Cardinals front office talked about the potential return of his long time battery mate Yadier Molina. Contrarily, you have to assume that Wainwright and Molina have had talks this offseason about his return as well. It remains to be seen whether Yadi will return to St. Louis, but it would be difficult to see him in a different uniform. With the NL Central division crown there for the taking, and the drastic improvement Nolan Arenado brings to the fold, I guarantee Yadier Molina and the Cardinals are mutually looking to find a way to have him contribute to what is now a more than promising ballclub.

Many fans are excited for the return of Adam Wainwright, and rightfully so. However, compared to the Nolan Arenado blockbuster, Waino’s return is under the category of a feel good story in St. Louis. For anyone who hasn’t heard of Nolan Arenado, here’s a quick recap. Arenado is a 5 time all star, 8 time gold glove award winner(with 4 platinum gloves to boot), a 4 time silver slugger, 3 time National League home run champ, and 2 time National League RBI leader, all while playing third base since 2013 in Denver. As difficult as it may be to believe, despite all the accolades he has received, Arenado is only 29 years of age. Although the intricacies of Arenado’s contract may have to be reworked before he officially puts on a Cardinals uniform, this trade is more or less finished. To actually break down the inner details of this trade is where many people will wonder if the trade was in real life, or a glitch in the system of an MLB The Show simulated season. Basically, the Cardinals pulled off one of the greatest trade heists of recent history. With only letting go of one prospect in their top ten, three lower ranked prospects, and pitcher Austin Gomber(8-3 record, 3.15 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 in 104 career MLB innings pitched), the Red Birds acquired Arenado and $50-million dollars from Colorado. If I would have told you that Nolan Arenado was getting traded but I did not have the exact details yet, you would have been safe to assume that Colorado was getting something realistic in return, right? Apparently not(although Gomber has shown signs of potential with minimal big league experience). And although there will be people making the argument that Arenado is not the same player when playing away from the bandbox known as Coors Field, it is safe to assume that even if Arenado’s numbers drop slightly, it will not be drastic enough to make the Rockies the proverbial winners of this trade.

Put simply, Nolan Arenado is one of the best players in the game of baseball today. Premier glove? Check. Premier bat? Check. Well liked teammate? Check. And yet it seemed like ever since Arenado was extended by Rockies general manager Jeff Bridich to an 8-year, $260 million dollar contract(including an opt-out after the 2021 season), the organization was moving in the opposite direction than he had hoped it would. It is no secret that in the offseason of 2019-2020, after the Rockies finished the previous season with an abysmal record of 71-91, Arenado was not happy with upper level management in Colorado. On top of the difficult season on the field, there were also trade rumors flying around that the Rockies were looking to trade their star third baseman in order to shed payroll. Seemingly fed up with the organization, Arenado went as far as saying he felt disrespected by the organization. Once this statement was released, Bridich publicly stated they were not shopping Arenado, and issues seemed to be patched up in time for both parties to go about their 2020 seasons relatively peacefully. In any way you look at the tumultuous situation that ensued surrounding Arenado in Colorado, it is easy to see why he wasn’t very pleased with the way things turned out in 2019. To make things worse, the Rockies did not play much better in 2020. In the shortened season, Colorado finished in 4th place in the NL West, with a 26-34 record. Even with the expanded playoff system created for the 2020 season, the Rockies finished with the third worst record in the National League, and were 3 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers for the eighth playoff spot in the NL. Although it was never certain that Arenado would be traded, after two horrific seasons by Colorado it was more and more likely, especially with an opt-out available after this upcoming season.

Now that the drama in Colorado has been fizzled out, Arenado will look to start fresh in St. Louis. Regarded as one of the best baseball cities throughout Major League Baseball, Arenado would have been hard pressed to be traded to a better situation. Cardinals fans can fantasize all they want about Arenado staying in St. Louis for the duration of his career, and they will try their best to show Arenado this is the city for him. After all, fellow former NL West righty slugger Paul Goldschmidt is now the starting first baseman for the Cardinals for the foreseeable future. Despite the opt-out option(and whispers of changes to his contract made due to the trade), it wouldn’t be surprising for a player of Arenado’s caliber to fall in love with the St. Louis fanbase soon after appearing in his first game at Busch Stadium this spring. And why should Cardinals fans give Arenado such high praise, you may ask? Let the numbers tell the story for you.

If the awards and accolades surrounding Arenado’s career so far in Denver don’t quite do it for you, let’s get into what exactly his numbers are that make him such a premier talent in the sport. Since breaking into the league at age 22 back in 2013, Arenado has statistics that are pretty ridiculous, even if half of his games were played in the friendly confines of Coors Field. He has averaged a .289 batting average, 32 home runs, 105 RBI, 89 runs scored, and an .888 OPS(not counting the shortened 2020 season). Adding that type of player to an offense that underperformed drastically in the 2020 season to go along with Goldschmidt, Fowler, DeJong, Edman,(and realistically Molina), may be just what the Cardinals needed to get them over the hump this upcoming season. If you were to compare the numbers I previously stated regarding Arenado the previous eight seasons compared to the primary third basemen on the Red Birds in 2019(Carpenter 107 games, Edman 55 games), the numbers would be drastically different. The Edman/Carpenter tandem had a .265 batting average, 24 home runs, 82 RBI, 118 runs scored, and a .788 OPS. As you can tell, Arenado’s totals all blow Carpenter/Edman out of the water excluding runs scored. The fact that the OPS difference is a .100 point difference is astonishing enough. These differences come without even looking at the defensive side of the ball. After all, Arenado may just be the best defensive third baseman of the current generation. How drastic of a difference is Arenado’s defense compared to that of Carpenter/Edman? Just about as ridiculous as the offensive comparisons.

If the 8 gold gloves and the 4 platinum gloves don’t do it for you, here are some of the reasons Nolan Arenado may be an even better defensive player than an offensive player. Since 2013, Arenado has averaged a .972 fielding percentage, +15 DRS, and a Range Factor per 9 innings of 3.08{RF/9= 9*(putouts+assists)/innings played}. Compared to the same tandem third basemen of Matt Carpenter and Tommy Edman on the Cardinals, Arenado is simply a major upgrade at the position. Carpenter/Edman have a combined .961 fielding percentage, +12 DRS, and a Range Factor per 9 innings of 2.54. Although the fielding percentages and defensive runs saved aren’t extremely far apart, Arenado is still better. When comparing the RF/9, Arenado is above and beyond, which is an important statistic when playing a premier infield position such as third base. If the gold and platinum gloves and defensive statistics don’t sell you on the defense of Arenado, take some time out of your day and look up “Nolan Arenado Defensive Highlights” on Youtube. Trust me, you won’t be disappointed. As many coaches and managers will tell you, pitching and defense win you World Series titles. As much as Arenado is going to improve the lineup in St. Louis on the offensive side, having a gold glove award winner playing at the hot corner day in and day out should prove to be more useful than you might think. Although they will both be in the age 30 range come the 2021 season, could there be an argument that the duo of Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado are the best 1B/3B in the league? I certainly believe so, if the former divisional rivals are healthy and at the top of their game.

In this fateful final weekend of January 2021, two fan bases most likely went through very different emotions. For the Rockies, this could have possibly been the most disappointing day in franchise history, even above the 2007 World Series sweep at the hands of the Boston Red Sox. The fans lost arguably their most beloved player in franchise history, aside from hall of fame hopeful Todd Helton, for next to nothing. I feel your pain, Colorado. Unfortunately, the suffering may have only begun. With one of the biggest superstars in the sport heading to St. Louis for the foreseeable future, what’s stopping the Rockies front office from trading other players who may have desirable landing spots elsewhere? Although I would be wary as to the return I would get back(considering the lack of resources coming back to Colorado for Arenado), it seems as if a full rebuild would not be out of the question, especially with two behemoths such as the Dodgers and Padres not letting up in the division anytime soon. Players such as Trevor Story, Ian Desmond, Charlie Blackman(financial issues could be a factor), Jon Gray, German Marquez, Antonio Senzatela, Kyle Freeland, Mychal Givens, and Daniel Bard could be next. These are serviceable big league players(with Story being a superstar talent) who will most likely not send Colorado to the playoffs, but will be able to help other teams in their push for a title. However, if I were GM Jeff Bridich, I would look very closely at what I would be receiving in return. If another blunder like the Arenado trade were to occur, there could potentially be a major rift between the management and the fanbase in Denver. Hang in there, Rockies fans. You may be in for a rough ride for years to come.

Now to end on a high note; Bravo, St. Louis. Although re-signing Adam Wainwright was a move that made too much sense to not do it, the front office still went out and got it done right before spring training. However, this move was only in the spotlight for so long before arguably the biggest splash of the offseason was made by acquiring Nolan Arenado. With the NL Central seemingly up for grabs, this was a surprising move that at the same time made a ton of sense. The Cubs have a depleted starting rotation, the Reds can’t seem to get out of their own way on the offensive side of the ball, the Brewers always find a way to stick around but are not a major threat, and we’ll see the Pirates in about 5 years. The Cardinals saw an opening, and decided to go all in. With a Yadier Molina signing seeming more imminent as the hours tick by, it seems there is only one more piece of the puzzle necessary in St. Louis to show their fans a deep October run is on the way in 2021. Could ten years be all Cardinals fans will have to wait to see their 12th World Series title? Only time will tell. One thing is for certain; the Red Birds are flying high in the NL Central, and are in position to potentially be celebrating the 2021 World Series title at home in Busch Stadium.

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