Author: Steven Chase
Editor: Brian Symons
The 2020 Mets were a disappointment to say the least. Even though the Amazins led the league in batting average, they still found themselves eight games below .500. This can be attributed to the lack of pitching depth, primarily starting pitching. The losses of Noah Syndergaard from Tommy John surgery and Marcus Stroman due to an opt out forced pitching coach Jeremy Heffner and manager Luis Rojas to seek alternate options. Free agent acquisitions Michael Wacha and Rick Porcello struggled for a major part of the year, and long-time Met Steven Matz had a horrific season, posting a -1.0 WAR and 9.68 ERA. The poor performances of these pitchers forced the Mets to pull star reliever Seth Lugo out of the bullpen, and put into the starting rotation. Not only was he not as successful here, this greatly weakened the bullpen. On the flip side, the Mets called up star left-handed prospect David Peterson, who flourished in his role. He posted a 3.44 ERA and a 1.208 WHIP in his first ever big league season. In addition to Peterson, star closer Edwin Diaz had himself a bounce back year. He posted a 1.75 ERA and 50 strikeouts in just 25.2 IP. This shows how electric Diaz was in 2020.
Shifting our focus to the 2021 season, the outbreak of Peterson and return of Stroman and Syndergaard the Mets are in a good spot heading into the new season. Furthermore, the Mets added star reliever Trevor May, and starters Carlos Carrasco and Joey Luccessi. On the contrary, the Mets lost left-handed reliever Justin Wilson who had been one of the few reliable pieces of our pitching staff the last two seasons. Now, you may be asking yourself: how does our pitching rotation stack up right now? Well, obviously the ace will be Jacob deGrom. In the span of 2018-2020, the two-time Cy Young winner has posted a 2.10 ERA, 2.31 FIP, 2.80 xFIP, 32.0 K %, 2.98 SIERA, and 16.0 fWAR. These numbers prove that deGrom is a one in a generation talent, and the best pitcher in baseball. The Mets have been able to count on deGrom since he came up and won the Rookie of the Year in 2015. He is guaranteed to dominate, and a sure-fired ace to start off our rotation. Moving on, when healthy the number two starter will be Noah Syndergaard. Syndergaard is returning from Tommy John surgery, and is expected to be back around June. If Thor can return to the pitcher he once was, we all know what he is capable of. From 2017-2019, Syndergaard accumulated a 3.67 ERA, a 3.10 FIP, 3.73 SIERA, and an 8.5 fWAR. These numbers portray how Syndergaard is an elite pitcher, and is capable of being a quality starter on a World Series calabar roster. Considering that Syndergaard will miss the first two months of the season, the Mets will have to explore alternate options for a temporary fifth starter. Originally, it appeared that the plan was Steven Matz, but due to an unfavorable 2020 it appears that Matz’s reputation as a satisfactory starter is gone. Sandy Alderson and the rest of the Mets front office went out of their way to involve themselves in a three-team trade, which had them acquiring left-handed pitcher Joey Lucchessi. In his short three-year career, Lucchessi has put up solid numbers, but nothing to go crazy about. He has a career 4.21 ERA, 1.280 WHIP, 2.6 WAR in 299.1 IP. If he can pitch like that in 2021, he would be an adequate option for a temporary starter, and a long-term bullpen option. Moving on to the newly-acquired Carlos Carrasco, he is projected to be the three starter in our fully healthy rotation. Since 2018, he has posted a 3.73 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 3.32 SIERA, and a 7.6 fWAR. Additionally, he was battling Leukemia during this time span, which makes these numbers even more impressive. Him and Syndergaard appear to be two solid options that will greatly bolster our rotation compared to 2020. Moreover, the Mets fourth starter for 2021 is projected to be Marcus Stroman. The 2019 All-Star has a 162 game career average of a 3.76 ERA, 3.64 FIP, and a 1.292 WHIP. Considering that he is projected to be our fourth best starter, he is more than fitting for the role he is placed in, and conveys how deep the 2021 Mets starting rotation will be. Finally, the fifth starter appears to be young left-hander, David Peterson. As mentioned before, Peterson put up great numbers in the 60-game season in 2020. Looking forward to 2021, he will be an essential member of the possible World Series run.
Just like the starting rotation, the bullpen struggled in 2020. As mentioned aforehand, the Mets lost Justin Wilson, but added Trevor May which puts the penn in an interesting spot. Currently, the Mets have a solid bullpen to say the least, but are lacking a reliable left-handed reliever who can pitch late in games. Previously, Justin Wilson was that guy. A name that has been floating around is Brad Hand. Hand is arguably a top 5 reliever and baseball, and would be a huge addition to the team. From 2018-2020, he has posted a 2.85 ERA, a 2.78 FIP, a 2.72 SIERA in 151.1 IP. He would be a candidate for the closing role on the Mets. Speaking on that, as mentioned before, the Mets current closer Edwin Diaz had a great comeback year in 2020. From 2018-2020, Diaz has posted a 3.27 ERA, 2.37 xFIP, 4.4 fWAR, and a 42.4 K%. He is undoubtedly an elite pitcher, but the question is: does Diaz have the clutch gene that you need to have to pitch in the ninth inning in New York? In 2019, the answer was no. In 2020, the answer was yes. As far as opening day is concerned, his performance in 2020 has earned him the closer role, but what if things go south for Diaz when fans come back in the stands? If Brad Hand is on the squad, he can take over the closer duties, while Diaz could be put in lower-leverage roles, that may make him less anxious. But, what if the Mets don’t land Brad Hand? Well, the Mets have two other options in regards to closing. In 2019, when everything went down-hill for Diaz, Seth Lugo took over the closing duties. With Lugo returning to the bullpen in 2021, he will be a key member of the team's success. In the past 3 years, Lugo has posted a 3.10 ERA, a 3.21 FIP, a 3.14 SIERA and a 4.2 fWAR. These stats show how good Lugo is, and how important he is to the team. Moving on to the newly-signed Trevor May, he will also be a key member of the team's success in 2021. From 2018-2020, he has a 3.19 ERA, 3.56 FIP, and a 1.8 fWAR. Similar to Lugo, he will have to pitch in late innings down the stretch in high-leverage games. As for the rest of the bullpen, there are still a lot of question marks. What will Steven Matz’s role be? How will Dellin Betances and Jeryus Familia perform? Will we get anything from Miguel Castro? These questions can only be answered when the Mets start playing actual games. All we can do is hope.
All in all, on paper the Mets pitching staff looks very promising. They have the best pitcher in baseball in Jacob deGrom as their ace, and a very solid supporting cast behind him. While the bullpen may have some holes, they also have great promise heading into 2021, especially if the Mets are able to either sign Brad Hand, or re-sign Justin Wilson. If all goes right, the Mets could have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball.
METS ARE OUR UNIVERSE
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