Who Stays and Who Goes?

Author: Frank Caggino

Editor: Mark Awadallah

If the Mets want to win a world series in three to five years, they are going to have to make some changes in the offseason. The Mets have several key players on their team that are expiring free agents and have to decide who is going to stay and who is going to be released.

One of the main reasons the Mets did not sign George Springer is because of Michael Conforto’s upcoming free agency. Some fans thought Conforto could get an eight year, 200-million-dollar contract from the Mets following his great 2020 season. This year however, Michael has not looked anything like the player he was in 2020, and now those same fans do not think he is worth a 200-million-dollar contract anymore. The New York Mets have to decide which Conforto season to examine before making a decision. Luckily for the Mets, they can give him the qualifying offer, a year contract for almost 20 million dollars at the end of the season.

The player the Mets gave the qualifying offer to last season, Marcus Stroman, is going to be an expiring free agent as well. Stroman is having a strong season with his 2.85 ERA that is tied for 10th best in all of major league baseball. Stroman also has not gone on the injured list at any point this season which would make him one of the very few Mets to do that. This is very important for Stroman’s free agency with him being 30 years old. A lot of the other quality pitchers that are going to be free agents are older than Stroman, which makes Marcus more appealing. Since the Mets were unable to sign Kumar Rocker, and pitchers such as Matt Allan and Joey Lucchesi having surgery, the Mets need healthy arms next season. Bringing Stroman back makes sense, but it has to be under 5 years. Most of the time, investing in a player after the age of 35 is a bad move. However, Stroman is not the only starting pitcher the Mets have that is not an expiring free agent.

The Mets will also have a difficult year evaluating Noah Syndergaard following his Tommy John surgery. Noah still has not pitched for the Mets this season following many setbacks, the most recent of which came after testing positive for COVID-19. If Noah does pitch this year, he has been told to not throw sliders by the team’s doctor. He will also be a reliever this season, when ideally the Mets would like him to be a starting pitcher. With how difficult this year has been for Noah, it makes sense for both sides to agree to a one to two year contract. This will allow Syndergaard to build this value up and help the Mets evaluate if Noah Syndergaard is the same pitcher he was before the injury. Before the season started, the Mets knew they had a few big expiring free agents, and during the season they acquired another one.

The Javier Baez trade cannot be fully judged until his free agency decision is made. Baez has not played many games as a Met and in the games he has played, there have been mixed results. Baez has the ability to make big plays to help the Mets, but this is offset by poor performances throughout where he totals three to five strikeouts the entire game. As a result, while Baez has helped the Mets, his consistency in performance is lacking. His fit, long-term, conflicts with the Mets’ current roster. If the Mets retain Javy, their decisions for Jeff McNeil, J.D. Davis, and Dominic Smith long-term becomes more challenging. Trying to find more playing time for all of these players will be difficult, and if other teams offer them more money it would not make financial sense for the Mets to outbid those teams for bench players. Finding playing time for prospects such as Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, and Ronny Mauricio would also be harder to do. Baez needs to play great in order to bring him back and ideally, the contract would be for seven years at most for no higher than 25 million a year. The Mets have more free agents at the end of the year who will not cost as much but are still important to the team.

One of the most pleasant surprises for the New York Mets is Aaron Loup who has completely outperformed his one year, three-million-dollar contract. Loup has to be retained in the offseason, however the Mets have to be weary of his age, with Loup being 34 next season, and how inconsistent relievers can be. Another Mets reliever that is going to be a free agent is Jeurys Familia. Jeurys had some great performances this season but also some performances that do not warrant him coming back. The Mets have to be smart with who they keep because the team they currently have is not good enough. They should not overpay for the players they already have when they are going to need some players from outside of the organization. For the Mets, it should come down to whoever plays well stays and whoever does not goes.

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