Battle of the Sluggers in the Big Apple

Author: Steven Chase

Editor: Mark Awadallah

Playing baseball in New York, the largest sports market in the world, warrants a great deal of criticism as well as comparisons to your cross-town counterparts. This is extremely relevant amongst the two first basemen in NYC, Pete Alonso and Luke Voit, where people ask, who is the best in New York? After the 2019 season, the answer to this was obvious: Pete Alonso. But after a huge power surge by Voit in 2020, notching 22 home runs in 56 games, and a somewhat down year for Alonso, the answer was not as clear.

Defensively, Alonso has the upper hand. Over his two-year career he has posted a 0 UZR and -7 DRS, while Voit has posted a measly -3.8 UZR and -23 DRS over the past three years. Evidently, neither are known for their defense, and since they both play first base this should not be taken too far into consideration. Voit has been in the league since 2017, but his first two years saw little action, therefore it is only a small sample size. Because of this, to compare the two we will use their stats from 2019-2020.

2019 was a historic year for Pete Alonso. After a stellar performance in Spring Training Brodie Van Wagenen, the Mets General Manager at the time, gave Alonso the call to come play first base for the Mets. Alonso blossomed in the new role. He posted a slash line of .260/.358/.583, a .941 OPS, 147 OPS+, 120 RBIs, and most notably 53 home runs. He also took home some hardware, winning the T-Mobile Home Run Derby and Rookie of the Year, as well as setting the Mets franchise and all-time rookie record for home runs in a single season. While Voit had a solid season, he was nowhere close to Alonso in the 2019 season. Voit posted a .263/.378/.464, a .842 OPS, a 123 OPS+, and 21 home runs. When evaluating the players, 2019 is the most important season to look at since it is the most recent full season. But we also cannot ignore 2020.

This was a down year for Alonso, posting a .231/.326/.490, .817 OPS, and a 123 OPS+. Even in a down year Alonso still posted very solid numbers, just not as good of numbers we hoped for. Voit on the other hand broke out in 2020, putting up .237/.338/.610, .948 OPS, and a 156 OPS+. If you combine the two years, one may presume that this is a very close call, which it is, but there are a few confounding variables that one must point out. Firstly, age is a key factor. Alonso is 26, meaning that these numbers he posted were from his developmental period and he has not yet entered his prime. As a result, it’s likely Alonso will only get better. Voit is turning 30 on February 16th, meaning that he has most likely peaked. Therefore, he will most likely not be getting any better. The second confounding variable is the 60-game season.

In Voit’s best season, he did not endure the stress on his body that most would throughout a full 162 game season. Alonso played 161 out of the 162 games in 2019, and still maintained very comparable numbers to what Voit did in 2020.

Finally, the sophomore season for MLB players is often the worst year. Alonso was a subject of this, as he did not achieve the success that he did the year before. This conveys that 2020 could have been somewhat of a fluke for Voit. This is not to say that Voit is not good, but that he cannot be compared to Alonso just because of an elite 60 game stretch. If Voit continues the success that he had in 2020 throughout 2021, then he could possibly be as good, if not better than Alonso. Unfortunately for Yankees fans however, this is not likely. All in all, Alonso is the best first basemen in New York right now, and it is likely that he will keep this up for years to come.

SPORTS ARE OUR UNIVERSE!

Why Trevor Bauer Shouldn't be a Met!

Author: Billy Taylor

Editor: Brian Symons

At the time of writing it has been exactly one week since the horrible story about former Mets GM Jared Porter. It has created lots of negativity around the New York Mets and the baseball world as a whole, for obvious reasons. Nonetheless, the offseason moves on for the Mets despite having a vacant GM spot.

Since the Jared Porter story was released late in the night on January 18th, momentum on Trevor Bauer’s decision in free agency has started to pick up with the Mets and the Angels being the reported frontrunners. If you go on Twitter, the opinions of Mets fans on Trevor Bauer have changed quite drastically since the beginning of the offseason in light of the Jared Porter firing. Part of this is because Bauer loves to “flex” his Twitter fingers often responding to criticism from reporters and fans.

Specifically, in August there was an incident between Bauer and New York Daily News reporter and senior TV writer Kate Feldman. Ken Rosenthal from the Athletic wrote an article reporting that the Mets were in on Bauer, but the team is worried that signing him would "renew questions about the team's culture". Kate Feldman responded to this article explaining that she was harassed for months on Twitter after making Bauer upset by questioning his opinions on the coronavirus. "I had death threats and Holocaust jokes in my mentions for months after he went after me," Feldman wrote. "I didn't tag him. I didn't even QT [quote tweet] him. This is what his followers did after he told them to go after me. This is OK with his agent, reporters and, I guess, the Mets." Trevor’s response to Kate’s original tweet criticizing him read: “When you’re definitely not terrible at your job or desperate for someone to notice you. Here, let me send some more followers your way. Have a wonderful day!!” Is this Bauer coaxing his followers to attack Kate? I don’t think so, a bit of a stretch.

Assuming Bauer’s followers really harassed Kate in the way that she explained, they were completely out of line and added to the ongoing dialogue of how women are perceived and treated in world sports. With that being said, should Bauer bear the irresponsibility of his followers? No. Would Bauer be a nice addition to the Mets rotation? For sure. Do I want the attention Bauer brings to the New York Mets? Absolutely not. Bauer has yet to sign is already being put through the ringer, can you imagine if he signs with the Mets and something like this inevitably happens again? Or he has a bad start and gives up six or seven runs in a blowout? The New York Mets are already being watched under a microscope with their exciting offseason moves, and the darkness of the Jared Porter story. Bauer will only amplify any potential distractions, especially when it comes to playing in the New York market. The fact that he could potentially make more than Jacob DeGrom, our homegrown ace of the rotation does not sit well with me either.

When it comes to Bauer on the field, I go back and forth on whether or not he could work out for the Mets. Trevor can be a really good pitcher. 2018 was one of his best years, he started 27 games and had a 2.21 ERA in 175.1 innings pitched. He also won the Cy Young award this past season, posting a 1.73 ERA in 11 games due to the shortened season. Of course, this should be taken with a grain of salt due to it being such a small sample size. Another thing that concerns me is in Bauer’s Cy Young year he only pitched against the AL and NL Central. Don’t get it twisted, there’s some solid teams in those divisions. But in those 11 starts, Bauer pitched against the Pirates, Royals, and Tigers a total of 5 times. Teams which I think we can agree are some of the worst teams in the league.

Other than 2018 and 2020 Bauer has been pretty solid, posting an ERA just above 4 from 2012 – 2017 and 2019. An ERA hovering just above 4 is above average if we’re being fair, but for the money Bauer is going to command it doesn’t make me feel too great. If the Mets can land Bauer on a one-year deal, I can’t be too angry about it, it could go a long way being in a competitive NL East. But if I’m Bauer I would cash in on a multi-year deal riding off the stats of my 2020 campaign. The fact he just turned 30 years old means that regression could be coming as well.

If the Mets sign Bauer, there’s going to be times where he thrives in the New York market. He’ll play to the fans well when he strikes out at someone and does the McGregor “Billionaire Strut” or pretends to shotgun a beer. But when he eventually fires off a provocative tweet or has a rough outing, the fans, media, and maybe even the clubhouse will turn on him causing unwanted attention for a New York Mets team who has potential to make noise this upcoming season.

SPORTS ARE OUR UNIVERSE

The Carousel of Arms

Author: Steven Chase

Editor: Brian Symons

The 2020 Mets were a disappointment to say the least. Even though the Amazins led the league in batting average, they still found themselves eight games below .500. This can be attributed to the lack of pitching depth, primarily starting pitching. The losses of Noah Syndergaard from Tommy John surgery and Marcus Stroman due to an opt out forced pitching coach Jeremy Heffner and manager Luis Rojas to seek alternate options. Free agent acquisitions Michael Wacha and Rick Porcello struggled for a major part of the year, and long-time Met Steven Matz had a horrific season, posting a -1.0 WAR and 9.68 ERA. The poor performances of these pitchers forced the Mets to pull star reliever Seth Lugo out of the bullpen, and put into the starting rotation. Not only was he not as successful here, this greatly weakened the bullpen. On the flip side, the Mets called up star left-handed prospect David Peterson, who flourished in his role. He posted a 3.44 ERA and a 1.208 WHIP in his first ever big league season. In addition to Peterson, star closer Edwin Diaz had himself a bounce back year. He posted a 1.75 ERA and 50 strikeouts in just 25.2 IP. This shows how electric Diaz was in 2020.

Shifting our focus to the 2021 season, the outbreak of Peterson and return of Stroman and Syndergaard the Mets are in a good spot heading into the new season. Furthermore, the Mets added star reliever Trevor May, and starters Carlos Carrasco and Joey Luccessi. On the contrary, the Mets lost left-handed reliever Justin Wilson who had been one of the few reliable pieces of our pitching staff the last two seasons. Now, you may be asking yourself: how does our pitching rotation stack up right now? Well, obviously the ace will be Jacob deGrom. In the span of 2018-2020, the two-time Cy Young winner has posted a 2.10 ERA, 2.31 FIP, 2.80 xFIP, 32.0 K %, 2.98 SIERA, and 16.0 fWAR. These numbers prove that deGrom is a one in a generation talent, and the best pitcher in baseball. The Mets have been able to count on deGrom since he came up and won the Rookie of the Year in 2015. He is guaranteed to dominate, and a sure-fired ace to start off our rotation. Moving on, when healthy the number two starter will be Noah Syndergaard. Syndergaard is returning from Tommy John surgery, and is expected to be back around June. If Thor can return to the pitcher he once was, we all know what he is capable of. From 2017-2019, Syndergaard accumulated a 3.67 ERA, a 3.10 FIP, 3.73 SIERA, and an 8.5 fWAR. These numbers portray how Syndergaard is an elite pitcher, and is capable of being a quality starter on a World Series calabar roster. Considering that Syndergaard will miss the first two months of the season, the Mets will have to explore alternate options for a temporary fifth starter. Originally, it appeared that the plan was Steven Matz, but due to an unfavorable 2020 it appears that Matz’s reputation as a satisfactory starter is gone. Sandy Alderson and the rest of the Mets front office went out of their way to involve themselves in a three-team trade, which had them acquiring left-handed pitcher Joey Lucchessi. In his short three-year career, Lucchessi has put up solid numbers, but nothing to go crazy about. He has a career 4.21 ERA, 1.280 WHIP, 2.6 WAR in 299.1 IP. If he can pitch like that in 2021, he would be an adequate option for a temporary starter, and a long-term bullpen option. Moving on to the newly-acquired Carlos Carrasco, he is projected to be the three starter in our fully healthy rotation. Since 2018, he has posted a 3.73 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 3.32 SIERA, and a 7.6 fWAR. Additionally, he was battling Leukemia during this time span, which makes these numbers even more impressive. Him and Syndergaard appear to be two solid options that will greatly bolster our rotation compared to 2020. Moreover, the Mets fourth starter for 2021 is projected to be Marcus Stroman. The 2019 All-Star has a 162 game career average of a 3.76 ERA, 3.64 FIP, and a 1.292 WHIP. Considering that he is projected to be our fourth best starter, he is more than fitting for the role he is placed in, and conveys how deep the 2021 Mets starting rotation will be. Finally, the fifth starter appears to be young left-hander, David Peterson. As mentioned before, Peterson put up great numbers in the 60-game season in 2020. Looking forward to 2021, he will be an essential member of the possible World Series run.

Just like the starting rotation, the bullpen struggled in 2020. As mentioned aforehand, the Mets lost Justin Wilson, but added Trevor May which puts the penn in an interesting spot. Currently, the Mets have a solid bullpen to say the least, but are lacking a reliable left-handed reliever who can pitch late in games. Previously, Justin Wilson was that guy. A name that has been floating around is Brad Hand. Hand is arguably a top 5 reliever and baseball, and would be a huge addition to the team. From 2018-2020, he has posted a 2.85 ERA, a 2.78 FIP, a 2.72 SIERA in 151.1 IP. He would be a candidate for the closing role on the Mets. Speaking on that, as mentioned before, the Mets current closer Edwin Diaz had a great comeback year in 2020. From 2018-2020, Diaz has posted a 3.27 ERA, 2.37 xFIP, 4.4 fWAR, and a 42.4 K%. He is undoubtedly an elite pitcher, but the question is: does Diaz have the clutch gene that you need to have to pitch in the ninth inning in New York? In 2019, the answer was no. In 2020, the answer was yes. As far as opening day is concerned, his performance in 2020 has earned him the closer role, but what if things go south for Diaz when fans come back in the stands? If Brad Hand is on the squad, he can take over the closer duties, while Diaz could be put in lower-leverage roles, that may make him less anxious. But, what if the Mets don’t land Brad Hand? Well, the Mets have two other options in regards to closing. In 2019, when everything went down-hill for Diaz, Seth Lugo took over the closing duties. With Lugo returning to the bullpen in 2021, he will be a key member of the team's success. In the past 3 years, Lugo has posted a 3.10 ERA, a 3.21 FIP, a 3.14 SIERA and a 4.2 fWAR. These stats show how good Lugo is, and how important he is to the team. Moving on to the newly-signed Trevor May, he will also be a key member of the team's success in 2021. From 2018-2020, he has a 3.19 ERA, 3.56 FIP, and a 1.8 fWAR. Similar to Lugo, he will have to pitch in late innings down the stretch in high-leverage games. As for the rest of the bullpen, there are still a lot of question marks. What will Steven Matz’s role be? How will Dellin Betances and Jeryus Familia perform? Will we get anything from Miguel Castro? These questions can only be answered when the Mets start playing actual games. All we can do is hope.

All in all, on paper the Mets pitching staff looks very promising. They have the best pitcher in baseball in Jacob deGrom as their ace, and a very solid supporting cast behind him. While the bullpen may have some holes, they also have great promise heading into 2021, especially if the Mets are able to either sign Brad Hand, or re-sign Justin Wilson. If all goes right, the Mets could have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball.

METS ARE OUR UNIVERSE