The Carousel of Arms

Author: Steven Chase

Editor: Brian Symons

The 2020 Mets were a disappointment to say the least. Even though the Amazins led the league in batting average, they still found themselves eight games below .500. This can be attributed to the lack of pitching depth, primarily starting pitching. The losses of Noah Syndergaard from Tommy John surgery and Marcus Stroman due to an opt out forced pitching coach Jeremy Heffner and manager Luis Rojas to seek alternate options. Free agent acquisitions Michael Wacha and Rick Porcello struggled for a major part of the year, and long-time Met Steven Matz had a horrific season, posting a -1.0 WAR and 9.68 ERA. The poor performances of these pitchers forced the Mets to pull star reliever Seth Lugo out of the bullpen, and put into the starting rotation. Not only was he not as successful here, this greatly weakened the bullpen. On the flip side, the Mets called up star left-handed prospect David Peterson, who flourished in his role. He posted a 3.44 ERA and a 1.208 WHIP in his first ever big league season. In addition to Peterson, star closer Edwin Diaz had himself a bounce back year. He posted a 1.75 ERA and 50 strikeouts in just 25.2 IP. This shows how electric Diaz was in 2020.

Shifting our focus to the 2021 season, the outbreak of Peterson and return of Stroman and Syndergaard the Mets are in a good spot heading into the new season. Furthermore, the Mets added star reliever Trevor May, and starters Carlos Carrasco and Joey Luccessi. On the contrary, the Mets lost left-handed reliever Justin Wilson who had been one of the few reliable pieces of our pitching staff the last two seasons. Now, you may be asking yourself: how does our pitching rotation stack up right now? Well, obviously the ace will be Jacob deGrom. In the span of 2018-2020, the two-time Cy Young winner has posted a 2.10 ERA, 2.31 FIP, 2.80 xFIP, 32.0 K %, 2.98 SIERA, and 16.0 fWAR. These numbers prove that deGrom is a one in a generation talent, and the best pitcher in baseball. The Mets have been able to count on deGrom since he came up and won the Rookie of the Year in 2015. He is guaranteed to dominate, and a sure-fired ace to start off our rotation. Moving on, when healthy the number two starter will be Noah Syndergaard. Syndergaard is returning from Tommy John surgery, and is expected to be back around June. If Thor can return to the pitcher he once was, we all know what he is capable of. From 2017-2019, Syndergaard accumulated a 3.67 ERA, a 3.10 FIP, 3.73 SIERA, and an 8.5 fWAR. These numbers portray how Syndergaard is an elite pitcher, and is capable of being a quality starter on a World Series calabar roster. Considering that Syndergaard will miss the first two months of the season, the Mets will have to explore alternate options for a temporary fifth starter. Originally, it appeared that the plan was Steven Matz, but due to an unfavorable 2020 it appears that Matz’s reputation as a satisfactory starter is gone. Sandy Alderson and the rest of the Mets front office went out of their way to involve themselves in a three-team trade, which had them acquiring left-handed pitcher Joey Lucchessi. In his short three-year career, Lucchessi has put up solid numbers, but nothing to go crazy about. He has a career 4.21 ERA, 1.280 WHIP, 2.6 WAR in 299.1 IP. If he can pitch like that in 2021, he would be an adequate option for a temporary starter, and a long-term bullpen option. Moving on to the newly-acquired Carlos Carrasco, he is projected to be the three starter in our fully healthy rotation. Since 2018, he has posted a 3.73 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 3.32 SIERA, and a 7.6 fWAR. Additionally, he was battling Leukemia during this time span, which makes these numbers even more impressive. Him and Syndergaard appear to be two solid options that will greatly bolster our rotation compared to 2020. Moreover, the Mets fourth starter for 2021 is projected to be Marcus Stroman. The 2019 All-Star has a 162 game career average of a 3.76 ERA, 3.64 FIP, and a 1.292 WHIP. Considering that he is projected to be our fourth best starter, he is more than fitting for the role he is placed in, and conveys how deep the 2021 Mets starting rotation will be. Finally, the fifth starter appears to be young left-hander, David Peterson. As mentioned before, Peterson put up great numbers in the 60-game season in 2020. Looking forward to 2021, he will be an essential member of the possible World Series run.

Just like the starting rotation, the bullpen struggled in 2020. As mentioned aforehand, the Mets lost Justin Wilson, but added Trevor May which puts the penn in an interesting spot. Currently, the Mets have a solid bullpen to say the least, but are lacking a reliable left-handed reliever who can pitch late in games. Previously, Justin Wilson was that guy. A name that has been floating around is Brad Hand. Hand is arguably a top 5 reliever and baseball, and would be a huge addition to the team. From 2018-2020, he has posted a 2.85 ERA, a 2.78 FIP, a 2.72 SIERA in 151.1 IP. He would be a candidate for the closing role on the Mets. Speaking on that, as mentioned before, the Mets current closer Edwin Diaz had a great comeback year in 2020. From 2018-2020, Diaz has posted a 3.27 ERA, 2.37 xFIP, 4.4 fWAR, and a 42.4 K%. He is undoubtedly an elite pitcher, but the question is: does Diaz have the clutch gene that you need to have to pitch in the ninth inning in New York? In 2019, the answer was no. In 2020, the answer was yes. As far as opening day is concerned, his performance in 2020 has earned him the closer role, but what if things go south for Diaz when fans come back in the stands? If Brad Hand is on the squad, he can take over the closer duties, while Diaz could be put in lower-leverage roles, that may make him less anxious. But, what if the Mets don’t land Brad Hand? Well, the Mets have two other options in regards to closing. In 2019, when everything went down-hill for Diaz, Seth Lugo took over the closing duties. With Lugo returning to the bullpen in 2021, he will be a key member of the team's success. In the past 3 years, Lugo has posted a 3.10 ERA, a 3.21 FIP, a 3.14 SIERA and a 4.2 fWAR. These stats show how good Lugo is, and how important he is to the team. Moving on to the newly-signed Trevor May, he will also be a key member of the team's success in 2021. From 2018-2020, he has a 3.19 ERA, 3.56 FIP, and a 1.8 fWAR. Similar to Lugo, he will have to pitch in late innings down the stretch in high-leverage games. As for the rest of the bullpen, there are still a lot of question marks. What will Steven Matz’s role be? How will Dellin Betances and Jeryus Familia perform? Will we get anything from Miguel Castro? These questions can only be answered when the Mets start playing actual games. All we can do is hope.

All in all, on paper the Mets pitching staff looks very promising. They have the best pitcher in baseball in Jacob deGrom as their ace, and a very solid supporting cast behind him. While the bullpen may have some holes, they also have great promise heading into 2021, especially if the Mets are able to either sign Brad Hand, or re-sign Justin Wilson. If all goes right, the Mets could have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball.

METS ARE OUR UNIVERSE

What Should Mets do Next?

Author: Frank Caggino

Editor: Brian Symons

After George Springer declined the New York Mets six year 125 million dollar contract, the Mets still have money to spend. This team has more work to do and there are many different ways the team can go about spending the rest of their money before reaching the luxury tax. The areas that should still be addressed is center field defense, bullpen, starting pitching, overall depth, and upgrade at third base. Even though the Mets were unable to get Springer, there are other centerfielders out there.

Even while the Mets were pursuing Springer, there are some Mets fans that prefer the team to sign Jackie Bradley because of the significant differences in contracts and how it would affect the Mets long term. Luckily, Jackie Bradley Jr. is still available and should be someone the Mets try to negotiate with. Bradley is one of the best defensive center fielders in all of baseball and would make a huge difference for this time in the field. Not only would the Mets upgrade their center field defense, but their left field defense would also improve by having Nimmo play left instead of Dom Smith. Bradley is not an automatic out either, as he had a .283 average in 2020 and even though he is a career .239 hitter, he can still have 20 home run seasons. A critique of adding Jackie Bradley is that if there is a designated hitter, the Mets would be too left handed. If that is a major issue for the team, there are available center fielders that are right handed.

Recently the Mets have been linked to Albert Almora Jr. Almora would also be an upgrade defensively in center field. The issue with Almora, is that after he hit a foul ball that hit a two year old fan that caused a brain injury, he has never been the same hitter. Almora can serve as more of a late game defensive replacement instead of an everyday starting center fielder. The decision on Almora would be much easier if the Mets knew if there is going to be a DH or not. There are two more right handed hitting outfielders the Mets could sign in free agency.

Kevin Pillar has put together quality offensive seasons and makes some highlight catches in center field. He should seem like a potential target, however the analytics are not in his favor and show that he has bad first step timing and does not have good burst to cover a lot of ground in center field. The last free agent option is for the Mets to bring back Jake Marisnick. He batted .333 but only played in 12 games. Injuries were a problem for Marisnick in 2020 and he did not make that many great plays in center field during his limited playing time. There are also possible trades to consider such as Kevin Kiermaier, Harrison Bader, Lorenzo Cain, Byron Buxton, and maybe Ramon Laureano. Ultimately Bradley would cost significantly more than Almora or Marisnick which the Mets have to be mindful of since they have other areas to work on.

The Mets looked like they were close to signing Brad Hand, but still are not close since they have not been willing to offer more than a one year deal. Hand would help out this team since he is a perennial All Star and the Mets have had bullpen struggles for multiple years. Brad Hand can help shorten games and allow starting pitchers to only go five innings. The Mets would have a combination of Trevor May, Seth Lugo, Brad Hand, and Edwin Diaz to close out games. Hand is also left handed which the Mets could use since the lefties they have are Daniel Zamora, Jerry Blevins, and Stephen Tarpley. Left handed relievers do not have the value they once did with the three batter minimum rule. However, someone like Hand would help since Bryce Harper, Freddie Freeman, and Juan Soto are all in the National League East. The other left handed relievers on the free agent market is Justin Wilson and Jake McGee. If the Mets are not willing to offer Brad Hand more than a one year deal, other teams will which makes Hand look unlikely. The other reliever the Mets have been connected to is Jeremy Jeffress who had a great 2020, bad 2019, great 2018. Jeffress clearly has upside, but also has risk but should be much cheaper than Brad Hand. There are plenty of good relievers on the market such as Alex Colome, Roberto Ozuna, Keone Kela, Brandon Workman, Ken Giles, and more. The Mets will definitely get a reliever or two but, who is going to be the main question since relievers are volatile and some of them have injury history (Ken Giles and Roberto Ozuna.) What would really take the Mets to the next level is upgrading their starting rotation.

Trevor Bauer is still available and likes Steve Cohen and Sandy Alderson which makes him a potential target. Bauer has a very high asking price, which would not be wise for the Mets to match. The team still needs to extend the contracts of Francisco Lindor, Michael Conforto, and Noah Syndegaard. If Bauer were to lower his price, he has the talent to be a great number two pitcher behind Jacob deGrom. Bauer has been inconsistent in his career, but his upside is very high. The other starting pitcher that has high upside is Taijuan Walker. Walker’s upside is his age compared to the other free agents (Odorizzi, Tanaka, Paxton.) If Walker is healthy which is a big if, he can be a successful starting pitcher. The Mets attended the workouts of James Paxton, Anibal Sanchez, and Julio Teheran. All of these pitchers’ best years are behind them and some of them have health concerns. For the right price one of these veterans on a one year incentive based deal would not be a bad move. The first two options should be Bauer and Walker. The pitcher in the trade market with intrigue is Sonny Gray who is a good pitcher as long as he is not a Yankee. The pitch usage of Gray on the Yankees is much different than the rest of his career which explains why he was not the same pitcher on the Yankees. Gray also has the huge bonus of Eugieno Suarez potentially being dealt with him.

If the Mets do indeed go cheaper in center field with Almora, are unable to get Hand, and Bauer does not lower his asking price, The Suarez and Gray trade becomes a more realistic possibility. The one position the Mets do not have a debatable top 10 offensive player is third base. Gray can be a mid rotation starter that would fit in nicely with what the Mets already have. The Mets have also looked at Enrique Hernandez, who would be a great utility player that can definitely help the team. Even though Kike is a nice player, the Suarez and Gray trade would be a great way to cap off the off season for the New York Mets.

METS ARE OUR UNIVERSE

Toronto Or New York, Where Will Springer Fit Best?

Author: Oliver Lang

Editor: Brian Symons

Less than 100 days until the MLB season is scheduled to start, and many of the biggest free agents in the game are still up for grabs. George Springer is one of those few and is considered by many as a top 3 center fielder in all of baseball. At 31 years old, he is a career .270 hitter with 174 homeruns, 53 of which came from his last 2 seasons. Not only has he hit for huge power in the last two seasons, but he’s been able to get on base more than most. In 2019 he had what many would consider the best year of his career, in which he slashed a .292/.383/.591 average in Houston. In the field he isn’t too bad either. While he may not have the greatest outfield ability, he is still a plus defender who can potentially save a lot of runs.

These top performance statistics would majorly improve the two teams still very interested in George, the Blue Jays and the Mets. Toronto has a young team of potential stars, and they have just been getting better and better recently, and the Mets have made many moves to become a serious playoff contender with the new ownership of Steve Cohen, along with the moves they’ve made since his taking over. The Mets would probably have the biggest benefit from acquiring Springer as a continuation of the other moves they’ve made this offseason. Brandon Nimmo is the current center fielder for the Mets and he is a great player—in fact he is one of the top right fielders in baseball, but not the top among center fielders.For the MLB percentile ranking he is the 2 percentile for outs above average, compared to George Springer’s 69th percentile. This along with his lower batting statistics make it clear he should not be in that position.

George Springer knows he is one of the top players in baseball, even with the 2017 season, and so he wants the high money figures for his service. He wanted a deal worth $175 million, which he isn’t going to get, but he could still manage a 9 figure deal closer to $100 million from both the Blue Jays and Mets. It is estimated that Toronto has offered him a 5 year $115 million deal, and the Mets have also offered a 9 figure deal, though it is not yet known what that number is. Considering all of this, it is clear a deal will be happening soon.

Springer has said that he would like to play closer to his hometown in Connecticut, which New York is close to and Toronto most definitely is not. This, along with the money, the powerhouse-type of team the Mets have assembled with Francisco Lindor, Jacob deGrom and the rest of the Metropolitans, and the Blue Jays’ deal being just barely over $100 million all seem to point to one thing—that the New York Mets are the clear best fit for the 3 time All-Star George Springer.

SPORTS ARE OUR UNIVERSE