Yankees Starting Rotation Outlook

AUTHOR: ZACHARY PATLIN

The start of the 2022 MLB season is less than two weeks away, with starting pitchers ramping up to be ready as a result of this abbreviated spring training. The Yankees did not add from the outside in terms of starting pitching, however what they have internally is young and deep, with a lot of upside potential.

The Yankees Opening Day starter against the Red Sox will for sure be Gerrit Cole, last year’s AL Cy Young runner-up. Robbie Ray took home the award and got a 5 year $115 million contract from Seattle because of the season he had with the Blue Jays. Gerrit Cole is one of the games best pitchers, and he will again show just why in the 2022 season. My projections for Gerrit Cole: 18-6 with a 3.34 era. He will rank in the top three in AL Cy Young voting again if he stays healthy.

Now we move on to the second tier, a large drop down from Cole’s tier, of Yankees starting pitchers. With no clear number two established yet for the 2022 season, Jameson Taillon, Jordan Montgomery, and Luis Severino will all pitch to attempt to secure that spot behind Cole in the rotation. Taillon had a two month stretch in the 2021 season where he was lights out, pitching to a sub 3.00 era in that stretch and showing every bit of his potential. Montgomery was probably the Yankees second most consistent pitcher throughout last season behind Cole, and was reliable every fifth day when he got the ball. Severino only pitched late in September after coming back from a multitude of injuries, but was lights out from the bullpen. It remains to be seen if he can bounce back and reclaim all star type numbers.

The third tier of Yankee pitching that will fill out the rotation and make spot starts when needed has many viable options. Let’s start with Nestor Cortes Jr. who had his best year as a pro in 2021 as he refined his mechanics and honed down on his command. Nestor will get every opportunity this year, whether it be in long relief or in the starting rotation, to show if he can sustain his performance from last year. The Yankees recently placed Domingo German on the 60 day IL, however when he comes off the list and begins his rehabilitation back to the mound, he will regain a starting spot in the rotation.

Also coming in this tier are some young pitchers who have come up through the Yankees system, including Clarke Schmidt, Mike King, Deivi Garcia, and Luis Gil. Each of these pitchers showed that they belong at the MLB level, so it remains to be seen which of these young arms will make the major league roster out of camp for opening day against the Red Sox. I predict Clarke Schmidt and Mike King will be on the opening day roster. The Yankees also continue talks with the Oakland Athletics about Sean Manea, as they will always look to add arms and depth to this rotation which has the upside to be great. Overall, this is one of the better rotations in all of baseball. Let’s just see if they can stay healthy and produce.

SPORTS ARE OUR UNIVERSE

Yankees Offseason To-Do List

Author: Zachary Patlin

The Yankees just endured a roller coaster of a season, ending with a loss to the Boston’s Red Sox in the American League Wild Card Game. After starting off the season as basically a .500 team through the all star break, the Yankees rebounded in the second half after some key acquisitions. Cashman and the front office pulled the trigger on Joey Gallo, Anthony Rizzo, Joely Rodrigues, Wandy Peralta, and Clay Holmes. Surprisingly enough, Clay Homes and Wandy Peralta topped that list for production for the Yankees, however it cannot be overlooked the balance that Gallo and Rizzo brought to the lineup.

Heading into the off-season the first choice management had to make was on the manager and the coaching staff. Shortly before bringing back Aaron Boone on a 3 year deal plus a club option for the fourth deal, the Yankees fired coaches Phil Nevin, Marcus Thames, and PJ Pilittere. Since, Reggie Willits has decided to join the coaching staff of Oklahoma.

With some stability at manager and pitching coach, the Yankees must first fill out the rest of the coaching staff, with the new hitting coach as arguably the most important piece. The first move to the coaching staff outside of Boone was bringing in former Mets manager Luis Rojas to be their third base coach. He adds a lot of experience to a young coaching staff. Aaron Boone has done a good job keeping the club together despite all the injuries over the past few years. His relationship with Cashman and the front office can not be overlooked as he looks to bring the Yankees to their first World Series since 2009.

The biggest need for the New York Yankees, as according to Brian Cashman, is Shortstop. Whether that be Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, Trevor Story, Marcus Semien, or multiple other candidates, remains to be determined. But it does appear that Gleyber Torres will permanently move back to second base, a position he has thrived at in the big leagues. This will either move DJ Lemahieu to third base or first base depending on the rest of the moves the Yankees make. After getting their white whale short stop this offseason, which seems almost inevitable, there are plenty other areas of need as well.

First base saw very little production in 2021 for the Yankees. Due to injuries with Luke Voit, the position lacked offense. That led to the acquisition of Anthony Rizzo. Reports also surfaced recently of Rizzo wanting to be back with the Yankees. He fits a big area of need for the team, a lefty first baseman with power but more importantly good bat to ball skills to separate their big righty sluggers. If they are able to get Rizzo back at a favorable length to the club, that can help propel this team to some stability and make all the infielders better. The one concern with Rizzo is age, as he will enter his age 33 season and took a slight step backward at the plate last season. However, Matt Olsen of the Oakland A’s appears to be a big name available via trade this offseason. Outside of freeman he might be the best hitter on the market, so it remains to be seen how much he will command in a trade this offseason.

Centerfield was another position last year that saw very little production. However the team does not believe they need to make an improvement from outside at that position because Aaron Hicks looks to be healthy and ready to go for spring training. He will start in CF and will provide balance in the middle of this lineup. The Yankees have and will continue to check in on players like Sterling Marte as they are always looking to be strong up the middle. Catcher is another position that Cashman will surely look at, however Gary Sanchez will most likely be back and the starting catcher for the 2022 season, as there simply aren’t better offensive option on the market. Tucker Barnhardt was amongst players the Yankees should at least do their due diligence towards, however he quickly agreed to a contract elsewhere.

Lastly, we will talk about their offseason moves on the pitching side. The Yankees had the second best team ERA in the AL last season, trailing just the Rays, and that was with an array of injuries. Next season, the rotation projects to be Cole, Severino, Taillon, Montgomery, and German headlining. They also have plenty of young options such as the improved Nestor Cortes Jr, Mike King, Luis Gil, Deivi Garcia, and Clarke Schmidt. If they are able to go out and get another middle of the line starter they will have another very strong rotation in the AL. Starting pitching, for once, is not their biggest area of need. They have done their due diligence on Justin Verlander, who if healthy is the best pitcher on the market despite his age. Their bullpen is also one or two small pieces away from being unstoppable, as it already looks to be amongst the best in the sport. Featuring Chapman, Green, Loisiga, Holmes, Peralta, amongst many other good arms, the bullpen looks to remain a strength. Joely Rodriguez was their first official signing of the offseason.

Overall the Yankees have a very busy offseason coming, especially after comments made by Brian Cashman that their team simply isn’t athletic enough and has too many strikeouts in the lineup. I expect this offseason for them to make many changes to the personnel of the offense to get this team back to where they need to be, in the World Series. This free agent class is excellent and I am very excited to see how the offseason plays out. Watch for a couple trades that Cashman will make that appear to come out of the blue, with names that no one is considering.

SPORTS ARE OUR UNIVERSE

The Battle of Aces in the Big Apple

Author: Steven Chase

Editor: Fran Attie

One of the hardest questions to answer in all of baseball is, who is the best pitcher? Due to Chris Sale coming off a major injury, you can narrow this down to two people: Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole. Even though pitchers such as Shane Bieber, Max Scherzer, Walker Buehler, Stephen Strasburg, etc. have been elite, deGrom and Cole have created a large gap from the rest. Many presume that it is deGrom because he has a lower ERA, but the topic is much deeper than that. Let’s get into it.

In order to obtain a large sample size, we will look at their stats from 2018-2020. During this span, deGrom has put up a 2.10 ERA, 2.98 SIERA, 2.80 xFIP, 2.31 FIP, 26.50 K-BB%, 32.00 K%, 5.50 BB%, and a 16.0 fWAR. Moving to the Bronx, Cole has put up a 2.71 ERA, 2.82 SIERA, 2.85 FIP, 2.84 xFIP, 29.80 K-BB%, 36.60 K%, 6.80 BB%, and a 13.4 fWAR. After examining these stats, the major takeaways are that deGrom is better at both limiting baserunners and limiting runs, while Cole is the more prolific strikeout pitcher. Personally, I value limiting runs as a pitcher more than anything else, which is why I lean towards deGrom. But, the reason why it is so close in my eyes is how Cole leads in SIERA by .16. According to Fangraphs, “Skill-Interactive ERA (SIERA) is the newest in a long line of ERA estimators. Like it’s predecessors FIP and xFIP, SIERA attempts to answer the question: what is the underlying skill level of this pitcher? How well did they actually pitch over the past year? Should their ERA have been higher, lower, or was it about right? But while FIP and xFIP largely ignore balls in play — they focus on strikeouts, walks, and homeruns instead — SIERA adds complexity in an attempt to more accurately model what makes a pitcher successful. SIERA doesn’t ignore balls in play, but attempts to explain why certain pitchers are more successful at limiting hits and preventing runs. This is the strength of SIERA; while it is only slightly more predictive than xFIP, SIERA tells us more about the how and why of pitching.” Many statisticians regard SIERA as the most accurate representation of a pitcher’s performance. Even with this taken into account, I still take deGrom over Cole due to his lead in both FIP and xFIP, along with his better walk numbers. I see the argument for Cole, and it can go either way.

Now that we have seen how close these two are in a larger sample size, let’s explore how they have both performed in 2021. In 2021, Cole has put up 1.81 ERA, 1.71 FIP, 2.23 xFIP, 2.12 SIERA, 35.1 K-BB%, 38.5 K%, and 3.3 BB%. These numbers are absolutely phenomenal, but are not quite as good as his competitor. deGrom has a 0.80 ERA, 1.18 FIP, 1.58 xFIP, 1.59 SIERA, 42.1 K-BB%, 46.5 K%, and 4.4 BB%. Evidently, deGrom has put up a stronger campaign to start 2021, as he leads in almost every major category. On the contrary, a notable takeaway is that Cole is walking hitters at a slightly lower rate than deGrom so far. But, even with that included, deGrom is the better pitcher right now. Both players are incredible, and if Cole has a better end to the season than deGrom he might take the cake. But unless that happens, I am taking Jacob deGrom over Gerrit Cole right now.

SPORTS ARE OUR UNIVERSE