The Battle of Aces in the Big Apple

Author: Steven Chase

Editor: Fran Attie

One of the hardest questions to answer in all of baseball is, who is the best pitcher? Due to Chris Sale coming off a major injury, you can narrow this down to two people: Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole. Even though pitchers such as Shane Bieber, Max Scherzer, Walker Buehler, Stephen Strasburg, etc. have been elite, deGrom and Cole have created a large gap from the rest. Many presume that it is deGrom because he has a lower ERA, but the topic is much deeper than that. Let’s get into it.

In order to obtain a large sample size, we will look at their stats from 2018-2020. During this span, deGrom has put up a 2.10 ERA, 2.98 SIERA, 2.80 xFIP, 2.31 FIP, 26.50 K-BB%, 32.00 K%, 5.50 BB%, and a 16.0 fWAR. Moving to the Bronx, Cole has put up a 2.71 ERA, 2.82 SIERA, 2.85 FIP, 2.84 xFIP, 29.80 K-BB%, 36.60 K%, 6.80 BB%, and a 13.4 fWAR. After examining these stats, the major takeaways are that deGrom is better at both limiting baserunners and limiting runs, while Cole is the more prolific strikeout pitcher. Personally, I value limiting runs as a pitcher more than anything else, which is why I lean towards deGrom. But, the reason why it is so close in my eyes is how Cole leads in SIERA by .16. According to Fangraphs, “Skill-Interactive ERA (SIERA) is the newest in a long line of ERA estimators. Like it’s predecessors FIP and xFIP, SIERA attempts to answer the question: what is the underlying skill level of this pitcher? How well did they actually pitch over the past year? Should their ERA have been higher, lower, or was it about right? But while FIP and xFIP largely ignore balls in play — they focus on strikeouts, walks, and homeruns instead — SIERA adds complexity in an attempt to more accurately model what makes a pitcher successful. SIERA doesn’t ignore balls in play, but attempts to explain why certain pitchers are more successful at limiting hits and preventing runs. This is the strength of SIERA; while it is only slightly more predictive than xFIP, SIERA tells us more about the how and why of pitching.” Many statisticians regard SIERA as the most accurate representation of a pitcher’s performance. Even with this taken into account, I still take deGrom over Cole due to his lead in both FIP and xFIP, along with his better walk numbers. I see the argument for Cole, and it can go either way.

Now that we have seen how close these two are in a larger sample size, let’s explore how they have both performed in 2021. In 2021, Cole has put up 1.81 ERA, 1.71 FIP, 2.23 xFIP, 2.12 SIERA, 35.1 K-BB%, 38.5 K%, and 3.3 BB%. These numbers are absolutely phenomenal, but are not quite as good as his competitor. deGrom has a 0.80 ERA, 1.18 FIP, 1.58 xFIP, 1.59 SIERA, 42.1 K-BB%, 46.5 K%, and 4.4 BB%. Evidently, deGrom has put up a stronger campaign to start 2021, as he leads in almost every major category. On the contrary, a notable takeaway is that Cole is walking hitters at a slightly lower rate than deGrom so far. But, even with that included, deGrom is the better pitcher right now. Both players are incredible, and if Cole has a better end to the season than deGrom he might take the cake. But unless that happens, I am taking Jacob deGrom over Gerrit Cole right now.

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