The Battle of Aces in the Big Apple

Author: Steven Chase

Editor: Fran Attie

One of the hardest questions to answer in all of baseball is, who is the best pitcher? Due to Chris Sale coming off a major injury, you can narrow this down to two people: Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole. Even though pitchers such as Shane Bieber, Max Scherzer, Walker Buehler, Stephen Strasburg, etc. have been elite, deGrom and Cole have created a large gap from the rest. Many presume that it is deGrom because he has a lower ERA, but the topic is much deeper than that. Let’s get into it.

In order to obtain a large sample size, we will look at their stats from 2018-2020. During this span, deGrom has put up a 2.10 ERA, 2.98 SIERA, 2.80 xFIP, 2.31 FIP, 26.50 K-BB%, 32.00 K%, 5.50 BB%, and a 16.0 fWAR. Moving to the Bronx, Cole has put up a 2.71 ERA, 2.82 SIERA, 2.85 FIP, 2.84 xFIP, 29.80 K-BB%, 36.60 K%, 6.80 BB%, and a 13.4 fWAR. After examining these stats, the major takeaways are that deGrom is better at both limiting baserunners and limiting runs, while Cole is the more prolific strikeout pitcher. Personally, I value limiting runs as a pitcher more than anything else, which is why I lean towards deGrom. But, the reason why it is so close in my eyes is how Cole leads in SIERA by .16. According to Fangraphs, “Skill-Interactive ERA (SIERA) is the newest in a long line of ERA estimators. Like it’s predecessors FIP and xFIP, SIERA attempts to answer the question: what is the underlying skill level of this pitcher? How well did they actually pitch over the past year? Should their ERA have been higher, lower, or was it about right? But while FIP and xFIP largely ignore balls in play — they focus on strikeouts, walks, and homeruns instead — SIERA adds complexity in an attempt to more accurately model what makes a pitcher successful. SIERA doesn’t ignore balls in play, but attempts to explain why certain pitchers are more successful at limiting hits and preventing runs. This is the strength of SIERA; while it is only slightly more predictive than xFIP, SIERA tells us more about the how and why of pitching.” Many statisticians regard SIERA as the most accurate representation of a pitcher’s performance. Even with this taken into account, I still take deGrom over Cole due to his lead in both FIP and xFIP, along with his better walk numbers. I see the argument for Cole, and it can go either way.

Now that we have seen how close these two are in a larger sample size, let’s explore how they have both performed in 2021. In 2021, Cole has put up 1.81 ERA, 1.71 FIP, 2.23 xFIP, 2.12 SIERA, 35.1 K-BB%, 38.5 K%, and 3.3 BB%. These numbers are absolutely phenomenal, but are not quite as good as his competitor. deGrom has a 0.80 ERA, 1.18 FIP, 1.58 xFIP, 1.59 SIERA, 42.1 K-BB%, 46.5 K%, and 4.4 BB%. Evidently, deGrom has put up a stronger campaign to start 2021, as he leads in almost every major category. On the contrary, a notable takeaway is that Cole is walking hitters at a slightly lower rate than deGrom so far. But, even with that included, deGrom is the better pitcher right now. Both players are incredible, and if Cole has a better end to the season than deGrom he might take the cake. But unless that happens, I am taking Jacob deGrom over Gerrit Cole right now.

SPORTS ARE OUR UNIVERSE

The Mets are...Injured

Author: Billy Taylor

Editor: Brian Symons

Injuries have been rampant in Major League Baseball this year, and many big-name players are going to be watching from the sidelines for an extended period. But no team has had quite the luck the Mets have had in terms of the sheer number of injuries they have endured. At the time of writing, the Mets have sixteen major league players on the injured list (yes, 16!). With seven out of the nine Opening Day starters sidelined. Yet, they continue to stay afloat at the top of the weak, yet talented NL East.

The slew of injuries for the Mets started when J.D. Davis and Brandon Nimmo landed on the I.L. with finger and hand injuries, respectively. It was unfortunate to lose the two hottest hitters in the Met lineup, but that was just the beginning for the New York Mets. Albert Almora Jr. then ran face first into the outfield wall, attempting a valiant effort to make a play. Luis Guillorme was sidelined with an oblique injury, Michael Conforto and Jeff McNeil are on the I.L. with hamstring and quad injuries. Taijuan Walker suffered a “side” injury, which he reportedly had been dealing with for a couple of weeks. This came off the heels of Jacob DeGrom going on the IL with lat tightness and back issues. As if that wasn’t ridiculous enough, Pete Alonso and Tommy Hunter landed on the I.L. May 21st with hand and back injuries.

And of course, the scariest injury the Mets endured was to Kevin Pillar who took a pitch to the face from Jacob Webb on May 17th against the Braves. It was a scary situation for everyone involved and certainly put a damper on the rest of the game. Pillar is fine, thankfully. It also helps that he is tough as nails, it took Pillar less than one minute to get back up after taking 94 MPH to the face. According to Marcus Stroman’s Twitter, Pillar came into the locker room the next day and said, “Am I in the lineup today or what?”. If Pillar could see out of both his eyes, I truly believe he would’ve convinced Luis Rojas to play. According to Tim Healey of Newsday, Pillar underwent surgery on May 21st to repair his broken nose and will be able to resume baseball activities in 10-14 days.

This could certainly be interpreted as the lowest point of the season, especially coming off two ugly losses to the Miami Marlins. But it doesn’t really feel that way, at least for me personally. Considering how the Mets are currently constructed, they could be performing a lot worse as a team. The Mets are made up of a plethora of veterans on one-year deals, AAAA players, and prospects with potential talent ranging from low to somewhat highly regarded. Johneshwy Fargas, Brandon Drury, Jake Hagar, Jonathon Villar, Kevin Pillar, Khalil Lee, Cameron Maybin, Wilfredo Tovar, Patrick Mazeika. You get the idea. Some names you recognize, others you’ve never heard before, and some you will never hear from again. Despite this, these Mets have a real competitive drive and will to win. With veterans like Marcus Stroman, Francisco Lindor and Dominic Smith leading the enthusiastic vagabond crew, players coming through in big spots, and rallying behind the warrior mentality of Kevin Pillar, this team has undeniable chemistry.

Many Met fans are frustrated, and I get it. But this can be a completely new team when they get healthier; God willing. Not only are the aforementioned players injured, but they also have very important pieces like Noah Syndergaard, Seth Lugo, and Carlos Carrasco still on the shelf. There should be a ton of reinforcements on the way for the Mets. If they can find a way to carry the vibe they have right now as a team and get healthy, they could end up being one of the best teams in the franchise’s history.

METS ARE OUR UNIVERSE

A Bad April For the Mets

Author: Steven Chase

Editor: Brian Symons

April 2021 saw its ups and downs for the orange and blue. We saw the breakouts of players such as Brandon Nimmo, JD Davis, Marcus Stroman, Miguel Castro, and others. We also saw Jacob deGrom continue to show why he is the best pitcher in baseball. But, we saw players such as Francisco Lindor, Joey Lucchesi, and a few others struggle. The Mets finished April 9-11, amidst a three-game losing streak. To sum up April for the Mets, the best term is inconsistency; let’s get into it.

Firstly, let’s start off the good. Jacob deGrom comes to mind before anyone else. The April Pitcher of the Month posted a 0.51 ERA, 0.82 FIP, 0.57 WHIP, 1.38 SIERA, and a 1.48 xERA for this timespan. With the exception of possibly Corbin Burnes, nobody was particularly close to deGrom this month. This was to be expected by the 2 time Cy Young, and will most likely continue throughout the rest of the season. Additionally, the resurgence of Pete Alonso was seen to start off in 2021. Through May 3rd, Alonso has a 142 wRC+, .382 xWOBA, .578 xSLG, along with a few absolute moon shots. We have not seen this production from Alonso since the 2019 season, and I hope to see it continue throughout the rest of the season. In addition to Alonso, JD Davis and Brandon Nimmo have been electric to start off the season. Nimmo (148 wRC+) and Davis (198 wRC+) have been the Mets only hitters with above a .300 batting average, and have been a key part in all Met wins. To add on, Michael Conforto, who had an OPS under .600 to start the season, has brought his wRC+ back up to 118 to close out April.

Conforto, who bats third in the lineup, will need to keep this up for the Mets to win. On the pitching end, the bullpen has been electric. As of April 27th, the Mets had a 3.16 SIERA (2nd), 74 xFIP- (1st), 66 FIP- (1st), and 29.7 K% (2nd). A few stand-out performers throughout this span have been Aaron Loup (1.64 SIERA), Miguel Castro (1.69 SIERA), Trevor May (2.01 SIERA), and of course Edwin Diaz (3.62 SIERA). Diaz had a couple of rough outings in between some elite outings, which heavily raised his numbers. Evidently, even without Seth Lugo, the Mets bullpen has been elite. The bullpen feeds right into the starting pitching, which is good but not quite as good. Marcus Stroman (1.84 ERA, 3.51 SIERA, and 3.22 xFIP) has been very solid to start off the season. Considering that by summer, the Mets will have both Syndergaard and Carrasco back, Stroman is a great 4th starter. Following Stroman, Peterson has bounced back from a rough start in Philly to end April with a 2.85 xFIP and 3.22 SIERA. Although he has been overshadowed by deGrom and Stroman, Peterson has proved that he deserves the fifth spot in the rotation when fully healthy.

Now for the bad. The Mets have a .240 team BA, which is alright, but the concerns come from the teams .209 BA with RISP. This has been a large concern for the Mets since the start of 2019. Although he hasn’t been particularly bad, Taijuan Walker has had a confusing start to the season. Although he has a respectable 3.00 ERA, he has ranked towards the bottom of the league in hard-hit metrics; A 5.06 xERA and 4.33 xFIP shows that Walker has been somewhat lucky to be where he is to start the season. He should be in long relief once Syndergaard and Carrasco come back, as David Peterson has better metrics to start the year.

On the other hand, Jeff McNeil has been pretty unlucky to start the year. McNeil has a .235 batting average so far, which is unlike him as he came into this year with a .319 lifetime batting average. McNeil is middle of the back in max exit velo (59th percentile), but below average in barrels (21st percentile). He has a .335 xWOBA and a 105 wRC+, but things are trending up for McNeil as he had a 4 hit night in Philadelphia. Although things are looking up for McNeil, this is not the case for Francisco Lindor. The 341 million dollar man has not been comfortable in the box to start off 2021. Amidst an 0 for 21 stretch, Lindor has a .163/.284/.209 slash line along with a 51 wRC+ and .311 xWOBA. Obviously, the power has been non-existent for Lindor, and he has not been getting on base much either. Lindor has a 7.1 UZR/150, so his offense has not impacted his defense. But, the offensive numbers have not been pretty for Lindor. Personally, I am not very worried, as Lindor has gotten out of slumps like this before in Cleveland. But for now, it's ugly. Additionally, James McCann has also been a failed contract so far (3 years for 37 million dollars) as he has posted a 55 OPS+. Although he has portrayed a strong arm, he has done nothing at the plate. Finally, we will examine Joey Lucchesi.

Lucchesi has given up a great deal of hard contact and finds himself with a 4.30 xFIP along with a 10.13 ERA. Obviously, it's hard for a team to win if they have a pitcher giving up over 10 runs per 9 innings, and hopefully, Luccehessi will improve going into May and June.

To conclude, the Mets have had their good and bad moments in 2021. Even though the first 20 games have seen them 2 games below .500 they have one of the best rosters in the MLB, and things will improve once the team is fully healthy and Lindor’s bat comes around.

METS ARE OUR UNIVERSE